America’s border security was stretched to breaking point this week. US Customs and Border Protection chief Raul Ortiz said this morning that border patrol has averaged around 10,000 arrests a day as midnight last night, and the end of Title 42, approached. On Wednesday, Ortiz said that an estimated half a million “gotaways” have made it into the US since the start of the fiscal year in October.
Officials had expected a surge of migrants after the expiry of Title 42, the pandemic-era regulation that made it easier for authorities to deport arrivals. For now, reporting from the border suggests the new rules have been met with a lull in activity. That is a sorely needed reprieve for a system that has proven unfit to handle the influx in recent weeks. Border communities face the most strain, but the stress is being felt nationwide. New York has suspended legal requirements on how to shelter migrants. “Everything is on the table,” Mayor Eric Adams said. “That is an ‘oh shucks’ moment, and I’m only saying ‘shucks’ because I’m being televised.”
Given that Title 42 had allowed authorities to deport migrants more easily, you may be wondering: why the rush before its expiration? The measure also meant that migrants could cross again without legal consequences, encouraging a final attempt under that system before grappling with an untested new set of rules.
What happens next is hard to predict: authorities and lawmakers expect a fresh surge of migrants in the near future, but much depends on how new rules are implemented and the outcome of legal action from both the left and the right. Just before the end to Title 42 last night, a Florida court blocked border officials from releasing migrants from custody without court dates. Soon after that, the ACLU filed a suit that attempts to dismantle some of the more restrictive new asylum rules introduced by the administration in anticipation of the end of Title 42.
In Washington, White House officials watch nervously, waiting to see how things will play out, immigration being a highly flammable issue on which the president’s polling is abysmal.
Fresh explanation of the tricky position Biden finds himself in comes courtesy of the Washington Post, which reports that, according to a former aide, “the president is personally conflicted by the issue”:
His Irish immigrant roots are core to his political identity, and Biden displays genuine sympathy with hard-working families he sees taking blue-collar jobs in pursuit of their American dreams.
Yet he’s also deeply troubled by chaos at the border and the seemingly intractable problems of the US immigration system, at times becoming upset when aides offered what he viewed as excuses for inaction.
“When Biden would have explosions, and he did have a bunch of them, he’d say: ‘Damn it, you haven’t told me anything different from what you told me last week,’”said a former official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the president’s behavior.
“Then ten minutes later, he’d say: ‘Look, I’m sorry, I know everybody is trying.’”
Behold, the moral anguish of our philosopher president! Call me cynical, but it’s awfully convenient for the ideologically supple Biden to be so conflicted on an issue that just so happens to be the subject of one of the most bitter divides in the Democratic Party.
The gap between progressive Democrats for whom immigration has become a moral crusade defined by opposition the border measures taken by Donald Trump and moderates who know take a less black-and-white view looks as unbridgeable today as at any time in Biden’s presidency. Meanwhile, Kevin McCarthy has once again surpassed low expectations and passes an immigration bill in the House: a display of Republican unity and effective opposition on an issue that is a liability for the president.
The politics of immigration aren’t going to change any time soon. A winning issue for Republicans, a painful sore spot for Democrats. Hence why White House officials nervously wait to see how their new regulations are interpreted by the courts and enforced on the ground. Their best hope is simply that a semblance of order at the border means the issue slides off the front page.
On our radar
YOU DON’T HAVE TO WATCH CNN Primetime CNN host Anderson Cooper addressed his network’s Wednesday town hall with Donald Trump in a monologue last night, telling viewers they “have every right” to never watch CNN again.
DEBT DELAY Biden and congressional leaders have delayed a meeting on the debt ceiling planned for Friday. What’s going on? The optimistic take: staffers are actually making some progress so a delay might get them closer to fleshing out viable options. The realistic take: staffers aren’t making much progress so what’s the point in meeting?
…AND A DEBT WARNING The Congressional Budget Office today warned that the US is at “significant risk” of defaulting on its debt next month.
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CNN plays with fire again
CNN’s decision to host a Donald Trump town hall turned out exactly as you might have expected: a horror show that blew up in their faces. Framed as an opportunity to press the former president with all the issues CNN viewers care about — January 6, E. Jean Carroll, claims of rigged elections — Trump performed in his typical manner: brash, audacious, rude and also hilarious, mocking the network and host Kaitlan Collins openly. Trump’s supporters couldn’t be happier about it — and at CNN, there could not be more consternation about the decision to push forward with this idea in the first place. When you’re calling a broadcast off with twenty minutes left, it’s clear who won.
Less clear, though, is what this type of performance means for 2024. In 2020, Trump won more votes than any Republican ever has and still lost. How many of those 74 million voters will still vote for him in 2024? How many has he lost via his performance on January 6 or his behavior in the years since? Is it enough to make another general election win an impossibility?
If you are confident a return to the White House is impossible, the CNN town hall is something you should support: Trump being Trump on the national stage, reminding people of his capacity for bluster and unseriousness and hardening the opposition he receives from suburban women. If you are less confident that such a return is out of reach, you should be terrified. Trump was in command of the room and the evening — and the degree to which his energy level seems leaps and bounds beyond an increasingly frail Joe Biden can’t be underestimated. Trump does not look like he’s about to keel over in the next five years — can the Democrats say the same about Biden?
What does this mean for Ron DeSantis? It means that he needs to get in, as soon as realistically possible. In his absence from the field, Trump dominates the discussion and the focus. There’s no way to assess a race that isn’t joined. And even if you are a die-hard DeSantis supporter, you have to look at a performance like that and recognize the need to enter the fray.
As for CNN, their executives seem solidly of the opinion — along with many other Democrats — that Trump cannot win again, and so promoting him as the potential nominee in exchange for higher ratings is of no danger. We’ve seen this game before, but having learned nothing from it, they’re doing it all over again — and “the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire.”
Want to live in Steny Hoyer’s old apartment?
Property of the week: Cockburn just viewed a cozy apartment in DC that was recently vacated by Nancy Pelosi’s former #2, Maryland congressman Steny Hoyer. The apartment is on the basement of a building around a decade older than Hoyer at the edge of the Capitol Hill neighborhood, in which Biden press sec-turned-MSNBC host Jen Psaki was also a previous tenant. The 1BR went on the market at the end of last month and has very low ceilings — especially considering how Steny is well north of six foot.
Don’t take the sale as a sign that the congressman is retiring any time soon though: the spry eighty-four-year-old is set to get married next month, to Brookings Institution senior fellow Elaine Kamarck, who presumably has a much dishier DC manse in which they can reside. Cockburn congratulates the happy couple: Hoya Hoyers!
From the site
Rosie Gray: Inside RFK Jr.’s kooky White House quest
Douglas Murray: Daniel Penny and the trouble with ‘have-a-go heroes’
Andrew Cockburn: Why Haiti’s humanitarian disaster is a problem for Biden
Poll watch
PRESIDENT BIDEN JOB APPROVAL
Approve 42.1% | Disapprove 53.1% | Net approval -11.0 (RCP average)
CONFIDENCE IN BANKS
How worried are you about the safety of money you have deposited in banks?
Very worried: 19% | Moderately worried 29% | Not too worried 30% | Not worried at all 20%
(Gallup)
Best of the rest
Elizabeth Weil, Curbed: Spiraling in San Francisco’s doom loop
Michael R. Strain, Project Syndicate: Debt and dysfunction in America
Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal: We may be getting used to high inflation, and that’s bad news
Declan Harty, Politico: Jon Stewart wants to remake the stock market. No joke
Tyler Cowen, Bloomberg: Falling fertility rates will turn the immigration debate upside down
Shawn McCreesh, New York: When Fox turns on its own
