In the two months since the launch of the 2024 Thunderdome for the Republican nomination, the field has turned out to be somewhat smaller than anticipated. As headline generation goes, no one can match former president Donald Trump, who has managed to get indicted on ludicrous charges in New York City, giving him a big boost from loyalists in his coalition. But there are signs that this boomlet is fading, and while Trump remains firmly in the lead, his constant potshots at Ron DeSantis have done virtually nothing to dint the popularity of the Florida governor.
Outside of a DeSantis event in Washington on Tuesday, planted protesters held up pre-printed signs accusing DeSantis of being afraid of books and drag queens and declaring “Partied With His Students #RealGroomer.” It’s a hashtag that no real person has actually deployed against the governor because it’s so absurd — as absurd as the “Jews Against DeSantis” leftists who engaged in a mediocre attempt to disrupt his well-received speech in New Hampshire last week.
The truth is that despite a massive amount of spin from the typical Trump-backing journalists who both decry his uniquely dangerous threat to democracy while eagerly pushing for his renomination, DeSantis is skating above the fray. His book tour and early glad-handing as he expands a close-knit team in Florida is leading up to an announcement that everyone expects a month from now. Alongside the Trump love/hate media, the loudest voices pressing for him to announce earlier — before Florida’s legislative session ends — all happen to support the leading candidate in the race.
The real challenge for the Florida Man will be how he tackles the Trump issue head-on. The lesson of 2016 was that you have to do the thing yourself as opposed to waiting for others to do the thing for you. No one can win the nomination but the candidate — and getting there requires the dirty work of confrontation. One anticipated field of battle: if Trump goes at DeSantis for being too conservative on culture war issues, particularly abortion. It’s the sort of thing that plays in swing districts and with consultants, but not in primary states. And for Trump, holed up in Mar-a-Lago and perhaps less in touch with the national tenor of the GOP than he was in 2015, that’s a test DeSantis believes he can win.
As for the others in the race and out of it: Mike Pence seems content to be Mr. Conservative in his traditional Christian way, heading into a field where he is decidedly disliked by the electorate. The question for a Pence 2024 campaign is: what is this meant to achieve? Is it actually bent on winning? Or is he jumping on a series of dangerous grenades like a silver-haired Captain America? On Ukraine, on entitlement reform, on abortion — Pence is your guy to sound that traditional and unpopular view that is nonetheless where the Republican Party has been for decades. He seems designed to be a thorn in Donald Trump’s side, and the big question in my mind is whether he’ll confront the man onstage at a debate for putting him and his family in danger on January 6 — a moment that may not help Pence, but could absolutely hurt Trump. “Why did you try to have me lynched?” is not a question candidates typically roll out during a debate — but it could happen in 2024.
Mike Pompeo has decided not to run for president after all. There were reasons for this, I’m told, that were plentiful — but his absence from the stage also makes for a real gap on the level of foreign policy and national security experience (Nikki Haley’s United Nations tenure barely counts). Yet Pompeo’s declining to run is also understandable: if you lack massive amounts of personal funding and an existing fundraising infrastructure, a thin campaign effort in a field where there are already two dominant figures seems a recipe for getting a lousy nickname from Trump and little else. But Pompeo gives no indication of being done with politics, and there are multiple ways he could find a way back into office — either in Washington or perhaps by returning to Kansas.
One question that remains is whether one candidate who won’t lack for funding has the stomach for this battle. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia has raised a significant amount of cash that he presents as being targeted at winning the Virginia legislature for Republicans — but Youngkin’s nice guy persona also seems out of step with the tone of this moment. There are questions about whether he intends to run at all, particularly with the departure of political consultant Jeff Roe, and if he were to maintain his legislative focus, that would presumably lead to a late entry in the field — perhaps well after the first debates have already happened. Youngkin could become the “break glass if DeSantis fails” candidate, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Either way, despite his Old Dominion focus, Youngkin has found time to speak to national Republican audiences — he’s addressing the George W. Bush Center on Presidential Leadership and the Heritage Foundation’s 50th Anniversary gathering at Mount Vernon today.
Thunderdome is in an odd position: the people are eager for the coming showdown between Trump and DeSantis, everyone’s geared up for it — but until it begins, none of the undercards are really all that interesting. The anticipation is infuriating — and there’s only so much analysis you can do before both sides start putting their full weight behind their punches.
