Will today be the day we get a permanent speaker of the House? It’s tough to say. House Republicans huddled this morning to figure out who they will put forward as their speaker-designee in the hopes that someone — perhaps, anyone! — can steer the rowdy House at a time of growing international strife. They eventually settled on Minnesota representative Tom Emmer.
There’s no guarantee that Emmer will even get the required votes from the full House, however. To minimize that possibility, Representative Mike Flood circulated a “loyalty pledge” of sorts that all current speaker candidates signed, which requires them to support whoever the conference selects. Flood noted to me, though, that even Jesus Christ would struggle to get to 217 votes in this House GOP conference. But someone has to, right?
Who are these candidates? What are their pitches? Who else might become speaker?
Representative Tom Emmer
Background he’s leaning on
Emmer currently serves as the GOP’s whip, but his primary pitch is his work serving as the chair of the House Republicans’ campaign committee in back-to-back cycles, from 2019 to 2023 — during which House Republicans gained seats, and ultimately the majority.
Republicans are in this mess because their majority is slim and tenuous. No one seriously believes that a vote for Emmer is politically dangerous for vulnerable Republicans. And as someone who helped Republicans flip the chamber for just the third time since 1954, he knows how to weather tough election cycles. Former speaker Kevin McCarthy’s massive nationwide fundraising apparatus will be almost impossible to replicate, but Emmer is no newcomer to the fundraising game. In addition to his massive online fundraising program, Emmer’s team points to Emmer already raising almost $8 million this year and the nearly 200 fundraising events he’s done this cycle and last so far.
What does he need to win?
As the former chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Emmer is particularly plugged in with the Republican members in swing districts, giving him a solid base with the type of Republicans who helped give McCarthy the speaker’s gavel earlier this year.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
McCarthy endorsed Emmer almost as soon as Jim Jordan fell short in his speaker bid last week. McCarthy’s Congressional Leadership Fund and Emmer’s NRCC complemented each other for four years to culminate in winning the House majority in 2022, when Republicans simultaneously lost the upper chamber. It’s not just McCarthy, however. Members like Mike Garcia, Brad Finstad, Jake LaTurner and Guy Reschenthaler are some of his key allies helping the Whip whip votes.
What are his top obstacles?
The top obstacle Emmer faces is what his team portrays as much ado about nothing. Some in Donald Trump’s orbit have taken a #NeverEmmer stance due to a perceived rift between Emmer and the former president, but it doesn’t seem based in reality. During the 2022 cycle, Emmer repeatedly praised Trump as a “fantastic ally” and as a “tremendous partner.” Trump himself is staying out of the speaker’s race this time after his endorsement of Jordan was insufficient to get the job done. If the anti-Emmer ire is limited to some on Twitter, he’s in great shape. Emmer’s biggest obstacle may simply be that Republicans aren’t yet ready to pick someone. He has become the speaker-designee, but will he soon prove to be the latest scalp taken?
Already out of the running
In addition to Representative Dan Meuser, who withdrew last night, six other candidates had put themselves forward for selection.
Representative Mike Johnson
Background
Johnson is already in House GOP leadership, serving as the House GOP’s vice chair — and unlike in a lot of House GOP elections earlier this year, he was unanimously elected. It’s not just his sleek head of hair that he’s leveraging for the promotion. He previously helmed the Republican Study Committee, one of the largest groups of Republicans in Congress, and has used his highly prominent perch on the Judiciary Committee to both hammer the Biden administration and read my tweets into the congressional record — the former a slightly higher priority for House Republicans than the latter.
What would he have needed to win?
Johnson’s theory of the case required bridging the considerable divide between Freedom Caucus members and moderate Republicans.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Right off the bat, Republicans from Texas and New Jersey backed Johnson. Louisiana looms large as a GOP delegation that’s increasingly at odds with itself. Johnson was nominated by Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a key figure in GOP establishment circles.
What were his top obstacles?
The weirdest objection to Johnson was one that historically doesn’t matter: if he wins, the top two House GOP leaders will both be from Louisiana. House Republicans, however, were once run quite successfully by a pair of legendary Texans: Dick Armey and Tom DeLay. Furthermore, Louisiana recently gave Republicans some rare good news: the state’s attorney general, Jeff Landry, just flipped the state’s gubernatorial mansion red for the first time in almost a decade.
Representative Byron Donalds
Background
Donalds has spent the least time in DC of any of the announced candidates for speaker, but he quickly became ubiquitous on TV shows of all ideological stripes. He’s a Freedom Caucus member, but has already rallied support from both Freedom Caucus members such as Ronny Jackson and former Only Kevin members like his fellow Florida Man, Carlos Giménez. For a few brief moments back in January, he got dozens of votes for speaker, so some of his colleagues can already visualize him doing the job.
What would he have needed to win?
Prior to his time in DC, Donalds spent several years in the Florida House, but most of his career was spent in the private sector — which isn’t exactly a negative for Republicans. It probably won’t be hard for Donalds to turn his lack of time in DC into a strength. One of the first people to criticize his Washington inexperience is none other than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; if the media-savvy Donalds can’t turn AOC’s opposition to his advantage, what’s he doing? Donalds, a former Democrat, would also leapfrog over Hakeem Jeffries to become the first black speaker of the House. Chip Roy, one of his backers, cited that “own the libs” possibility when he voted for Donalds for speaker earlier this year.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Donalds is cleaning up with the Floridians, but he’s also picking up support from a lot of Texans right off the bat, including Jackson and Roy. In fact, as a relative newcomer to Congress, Donalds has simply had less time to piss off the pool of Republicans who will determine the next speaker. Grudges dating back to John Boehner’s time running the show proved enough to undermine Jim Jordan just last week.
What were his top obstacles?
Donalds is incredibly conservative, so his challenge was to show moderate members that he would have their backs. Of all the recent speaker candidates, only Donalds has expressed interest in leaving Congress any time soon, and that would be to run for governor of Florida in 2026. On some level, his candidacy for speaker was putting his own ambition on the back-burner.
Representative Kevin Hern
Background
This isn’t Hern’s first rodeo. Prior to his time in Congress, he was instrumental at turning the McDonald’s restaurant chain around; a group of 3,500 of his Maccy D’s peers elected him to the organization’s Leadership Team — so how hard could it be to get just over 200 House Republicans to vote for him? This Congress, he’s been head of the RSC, giving him a leadership role over one of the largest groups of House Republicans.
What would he have needed to win?
Hern needed the current RSC to matter more than previous versions. Johnson ran it too, but Hern’s the current guy leading a caucus of more than 70 percent of House Republicans. He also needed House Republicans to be on Team McDonald’s over Team Burger King. He provided a “shitload” of fast food as part of his pitch, reminding everyone of the more than thirty years he’s spent in business. He also showed off a personal touch, giving voters specific Hern-branded swag, ranging from cigars to golf balls, depending on the intended recipient.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
As an Oklahoman, he’s part of a delegation that has punched above its weight for a long time. He’s already locked up support from Frank Lucas and Tom Cole, two legendary longtime committee chairs who have been closely watched by many throughout the speaker’s race.
What were his top obstacles?
His time in business is time he didn’t spend in politics. Running the RSC is a huge structural advantage, but Hern needed to show how he could expand the majority as leader of House Republicans.
Representative Austin Scott
Background
At the last possible moment, Scott threw his hat in the ring to challenge Jordan for the speakership last week, netting more than eighty votes — more votes for speaker than any of the other candidates have gotten in recent weeks.
What would he have needed to win?
While Scott had zero interest in running for speaker last week, he did it. And he didn’t do that poorly against Jordan, despite having laid zero groundwork in the days before his futile bid. In order to actually win this time, he’d have needed to hope that he could grow from more than eighty votes to more than 215 votes.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Georgians. Scott can likely count on a lot of his home team to start things office, including some who had voted for Jordan over him last time.
What were his top obstacles?
How did he expect to grow from a protest vote to a speaker of the House?
Representative Pete Sessions
Background
Emmer wasn’t the only former NRCC chair who wants the top job. Sessions ran the CC during its best cycle in living memory: in 2010, when Republicans flipped the House thanks to picking up sixty-three seats. Sessions also leaned on his time as chair of the powerful Rules Committee to show that he knows how to run the show.
What would he have needed to win?
Much of politics is dominated by a “what have you done for me lately?” mentality, but there’s no doubt that dozens of Republicans currently in office owe their jobs at least in part to Sessions.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Texans. But he needed to keep the massive delegation on his side. Several already signed up with Byron Donalds. Sessions is leaning in heavily to his NRCC chairmanship; Virginia’s Morgan Griffith, who was elected due in part to Sessions’s help in 2010, nominated him.
What were his top obstacles?
2010 is ages ago politically, and a lot of the Republicans who joined in the Tea Party wave have moved on to greener pastures of higher office or simply called it quits. But as a former NRCC chair, Sessions would have been incredibly well-positioned to help Republicans defend the seats they need to hold and to expand their majority in what could be an incredibly tough year.
Representative Jack Bergman
Background
Bergman, a three-star general in the Marine Corps, is the highest-ranking combat veteran elected to Congress in American history. He’s a highly decorated forty-year military vet, and he unsurprisingly focused on his national security credentials to argue that he’s the best suited to lead the GOP at a time when the world is going to hell in a hand-basket.
What would he have needed to win?
Chaos in the Middle East is tragic, but it gave Bergman immediate credibility to lead the House GOP on everything from Israel to Iran to China and beyond.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Bergman secured early backing from a lot of his fellow Michiganders, and he has a knack for turning some of his foes into friends. One of his top allies is Illinois’s Mike Bost, who defeated Bergman in an election to chair the House’s Committee on Veterans’ Affairs.
What are his top obstacles?
Unlike Emmer, for example, Berman spent his career in the military, giving him a wealth of knowledge about defeating America’s enemies abroad, but less of the nationwide political network that some of his rivals have. He’s probably likelier to be a secretary of defense in a future Republican presidential administration.
Representative Gary Palmer
Background
Palmer is a longtime conservative activist, helping found the nationwide State Policy Network before his time in Congress.
What would he have needed to win?
Like everyone else, Palmer needed to bridge the divide between the Freedom Caucus, of which he is a member, and everyone else. He’s in House GOP leadership, having chaired the House GOP’s Policy Committee since 2019.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Alabama’s delegation — with the exception of Barry Moore, who had already pledged to support someone else, Palmer is starting the day off with his home team on his side.
What were his top obstacles?
Palmer is a policy wonk, and most of these debates have been about anything other than policy. Like some of the others, he starts off at a disadvantage when it comes to the experience needed to expand a House GOP majority next November.
As for the long shots…
Donald Trump
Background he’s leaning on
He was 45th president of the United States.
What does he need to win?
Trump needs everyone else to fail.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
A lot of House Republicans have endorsed Trump for president, but Troy Nehls and Marjorie Taylor Greene are two who have been particularly vocal about having Trump serve as speaker.
What are his top obstacles?
Currently running for president; various trials.
Likelihood of winning
Almost zero, but you can’t rule anything out.
Representative Hakeem Jeffries
Background he’s leaning on
Running House Democrats.
What does he need to win?
A historic blunder by House Republicans — even larger than the one they’re currently embroiled in.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Every House Democrat has voted for Jeffries for speaker; he has the caucus in his pocket.
What are his top obstacles?
Being in the House minority.
Likelihood of winning
Jeffries becoming speaker is a West Wing-esque fantasy — however, there is serious concern among Republicans that if this drama goes on much longer that some of their members will give up hope and strike a strange power-sharing agreement with Jeffries. Vern Buchanan said that Republicans “don’t want to work with Democrats, but it might end up to be a point where that’s the only way.”
Representative Kevin McCarthy
Background he’s leaning on
Time as House speaker since January.
What does he need to win?
For none of the announced candidates to come anywhere near 217 votes.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Most House Republicans, many of whom are in office because of the hundreds of millions of dollars that McCarthy has raised and spent on their behalf.
What are his top obstacles?
McCarthy remains the only Republican who has gotten anywhere near the number of votes needed in recent weeks; however, he had eight House Republicans who were dead-set against him earlier this month. Has anything changed with them?
Likelihood of winning
Small but growing.
Representative Patrick McHenry
Background he’s leaning on
Serving as acting speaker of the House.
What does he need to win?
If McHenry wants a permanent gavel (which is totally up in the air), he needs every announced candidate to come up short.
Who are his top allies in Congress?
Chiefly, Kevin McCarthy, who trusted McHenry so much that he gave him the authority to take over as speaker in case of emergency.
What are his top obstacles?
There’s broad satisfaction with how McHenry has been running the show so far, especially with how he booted Nancy Pelosi from her office. The main concern among some Republicans would be McHenry taking over as speaker with votes from Democrats.
Likelihood of winning
Small.
