Asa Hutchinson says we need a “course correction” in the Republican Party. There are many Republicans who agree with him. But with weak name recognition and some viewpoints that are out of step with the Republican base, is there a lane for the seventy-two-year-old former governor of Arkansas, who formally launched his campaign Wednesday?
At the moment, he’s the only declared candidate who is explicitly attacking Trump — albeit in his folksy, gentlemanly way. So, even if there’s no lane for him to win the GOP nomination, can he damage Trump’s chances, potentially assisting DeSantis — or will he and other long-shot candidates simply splinter the anti-Trump vote and help to ensure the former president’s nomination?
Hutchinson is at 0.8 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the GOP primary. In the four national polls where he’s been given as a choice, he registered at zero percent in three of them and 3 percent in an NBC News poll. Aside from DeSantis, the clear number two, no other candidate or presumed candidate hits 5 percent, with Pence coming closest at 4.5 percent. PredictIt and other betting websites have long-shot (undeclared) candidates such as Tucker Carlson and others, but aren’t even taking Asa Hutchinson bets. But it’s still early — and important to note that no one has voted yet.
After Biden announced his candidacy Tuesday, a host of outlets ran headlines predicting a Biden-Trump rematch. That’s what Trump, Biden, the media and many others on the left want. But I think the more Republican voters hear from other candidates, the less they’ll be married to Trump — particularly if the other hopefuls take the gloves off, and if Trump follows through on his recent threat to boycott the Republican debates.
Hutchinson may lack name recognition, but he has plenty of experience. He practiced law for twenty-one years before being elected to the US House in 1996, capturing a seat his brother, Tim, had held for two terms. He was one of the House managers prosecuting the impeachment case against President Bill Clinton. Hutchinson later led the Drug Enforcement Administration and headed the Border and Transportation Security Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security when it was created after the 9/11 attacks. He later served two terms as governor, winning reelection in 2018 with 65 percent of the vote.
In some regards, Hutchinson’s record is conservative, and on Wednesday he said, “I ran as a conservative Republican when being a Republican was like having a career-ending handicap.” As governor, he signed a ban on abortion with no exceptions for pregnancies that result from rape or incest. But he vetoed a ban on gender-change surgeries for minors in the state and has been a vocal Trump critic. In an interview on NBC News, he said, “Trump has taken us back to bitterness, back to what is a personal vendetta. When you look at what he wants to do as president, it’s more about getting even with his political enemies than leading the country. That concerns me.”
He released a statement after DA Alvin Bragg’s indictment of Trump that fell far short of the withering criticism others on the right leveled at Bragg.
“While the grand jury found credible facts to support the charges, it is important that the presumption of innocence follows Mr. Trump,” he said. “We need to wait on the facts and for our American system of justice to work like it does for thousands of Americans every day.”
Hutchinson told Reuters that Trump’s actions on January 6 were disqualifying and argued against the RNC’s censure of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger for serving on the (biased) House committee investigating the January 6 riot. He also, correctly in my opinion, predicted that Trump’s efforts to perpetually relitigate the 2020 election was a “recipe for disaster” for the 2022 midterms. But Hutchinson can’t be categorized as a NeverTrumper, as he served as chair of Trump’s 2020 campaign in Arkansas and supported his candidacy in 2016 as well.
On foreign policy, Politico refers to Hutchinson as a compassionate internationalist and says he may “represent the last gasp of a Republican internationalism that is less and less in favor within his party.” In his campaign launch Wednesday, he said he agreed “with those who say we do not want an unending war in Ukraine, and the best way to avoid a long war is to help Ukraine win today.”
Does he have a lane? When NBC News asked him why he thinks he has a chance, he responded, “History. Whenever you look at the history of frontrunners, it’s not too good.” He’s right about that, but no one has risen from less than 1 percent to the nomination in recent history. Hutchinson joins a crowded field that includes Nikki Haley, talk show host Larry Elder, a quality control expert from Michigan named Perry Johnson, who couldn’t even get enough signatures to get on the ballot to run for governor last year, and Vivek Ramaswamy. And then, other than Governor Ron DeSantis, who will likely jump in soon, other potential candidates include Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Chris Sununu, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, Chris Christie and perhaps Glenn Youngkin — though he’s considered unlikely to run.
It remains to be seen what role Hutchinson and other one-percenters and longshots will play in the campaign. Hutchinson could play a role as an outspoken Trump critic, one with legitimate conservative bona fides, but he also criticized DeSantis, telling the AP that his feud with Disney is misguided. “I don’t think government ought to be punishing the private sector because we don’t like what they say,” he said. DeSantis argues that he’s not punishing this increasingly woke, increasingly political company, he’s simply revoking remarkable special privileges not accorded to any other theme park or business in the state.
And what happens if Trump’s campaign is derailed by legal troubles and DeSantis isn’t able to replicate his success in Florida on the national stage? I still think Hutchinson is more of a spoiler than a person who can capture the nomination. The party base has moved in a nationalist, America First direction — and I think whoever can best articulate that vision and convince Republicans that they can beat Biden will win. Behind Trump, DeSantis is a clear favorite, followed by Tim Scott, whose life story could be compelling for many. Youngkin is a gifted politician, and he too, could be a difference-maker if he decides to jump in the race.
In any case, if Trump doesn’t show up at the debates and DeSantis does, Hutchinson and the other long-shots might take the opportunity to lob attacks at the Florida Man (DeSantis, not the other Florida Man who now regards the state as though it were one of his famed “shithole countries) on the stage.
Trump clearly wants to see the same kind of crowded field he beat in 2016. His attacks have been almost exclusively lobbed at DeSantis in recent weeks. That’s likely because the national media is largely ignoring all the other Republican candidates. Once they have a larger platform, via the debates, he’ll certainly return fire if they turn their guns on him. But they might tiptoe around Trump and vie to become the leader of the I’m not Trump pack, a worst-case scenario for DeSantis. DeSantis would be wise to avoid punching down. He’ll need the support of the other candidates who’ll drop out after poor early performances. Hutchinson and others might do some of his dirty work, in articulating Trump’s weaknesses. But DeSantis and the other contenders won’t win unless they land their own blows, and they better start punching soon.
