The very stable primary

Written By:

Oliver Wiseman

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The very stable primary

https://thespectator.com/newsletter/very-stable-primary-07-31-23/

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Is Donald Trump unbeatable? That has been the big question hanging over the Republican presidential primary ever since the former president announced his candidacy last November. And, even before the first debate has taken place, it is a question to which “yes” looks like an increasingly plausible answer. Since the early campaign got underway in earnest, the contest for the Republican nomination has been remarkably stable. Trump has held a commanding lead, Ron DeSantis has lagged behind him in a clear but distant second, failing to breakthrough as many thought he might after declaring his…

Is Donald Trump unbeatable? That has been the big question hanging over the Republican presidential primary ever since the former president announced his candidacy last November. And, even before the first debate has taken place, it is a question to which “yes” looks like an increasingly plausible answer.

Since the early campaign got underway in earnest, the contest for the Republican nomination has been remarkably stable. Trump has held a commanding lead, Ron DeSantis has lagged behind him in a clear but distant second, failing to breakthrough as many thought he might after declaring his candidacy. Meanwhile, no one else has registered enough of a polling surge to announce themselves as a serious alternative.

Insofar as there has been any movement in the race so far, it has been in Trump’s favor. And his commanding lead is evident in a New York Times/Siena College poll published today. It finds 54 percent of Republican primary voters backing Trump, with DeSantis on 17 percent. No one else can register more than 3 percent.

In his analysis of the poll, Nate Cohn puts Trump’s commanding lead in clear terms: “In the half century of modern presidential primaries, no candidate who led his or her nearest rival by at least twenty points at this stage has ever lost a party nomination. Today, Donald J. Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis is nearly twice as large.”

Republicans keen to move past Trump have been eager to avoid a crowded field that might pull votes away from DeSantis and allow Trump to win the nomination with a plurality. Such fears now seem woefully wide of the mark, but for all the wrong reasons: DeSantis has done little to show that he can eat into Trump’s lead, while the former president is within reach of an outright majority.

The poll will make for grim reading at DeSantis headquarters. Voters were asked to compare Trump and DeSantis on a range of attributes. Trump is seen as a stronger leader, better at getting things done, more electable and more fun. DeSantis is seen as marginally more likable (an irony given that the received wisdom identifies him as unlikable and uncharismatic) and more moral.

As worrying for the president’s opponents is the poll’s breakdown of the factions within the primary electorate. It describes 37 percent of the likely electorate as the MAGA base, Trump’s ride or die supporters, another 37 percent as “persuadable” and 25 percent as being not open to Trump. That means a single candidate must win over the anyone-but-Trump vote as well as the lion’s share of the persuadables. None of the current names have shown any suggestion they can lead that disparate coalition.

Like a studio sports analyst at halftime hoping you keep watching regardless of the one-sided score, this is the point at which I remind you it’s still early, it’s all to play for and so on. After all, a foregone conclusion of a primary is bad business for those of us who write about politics. And, in fairness to the “it’s still early” crowd, Trump’s legal problems do add real uncertainty to the process. But the simple truth is that Trump, a former president with a loyal following, is in a very strong, possibly unassailable, position. When I hear anyone arguing otherwise, it usually sounds like motivated reasoning.

But allow this Trump-skeptic to identify one silver lining: if DeSantis is disappointing those who thought he was the man to slay the Trump dragon, he is doing so quickly. In time for other Republican rising stars to reconsider their decision to sit 2024 out. Today’s poll might not prove Trump is unbeatable. But it gives us little reason to believe any of the current candidates are up to the job.

On our radar

TRUMP ON THE FIRST PRIMARY DEBATE “Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for vice president.”

TRUMP ON MCCONNELL’S PRESS CONFERENCE EPISODE “That was a sad thing to see. He had a bad fall, I guess, and probably an after-effect of that. But it was also sad that he gave trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars to the Democrats to waste on the Green New Deal, destroying our oceans and destroying our great, beautiful vistas and plains all over our country with windmills that are very expensive energy. So that’s a very sad thing also.”

Arctic freeze

The Arctic promises to be one of the most important regions of the world in the coming decades as countries begin to exploit both its resources and transit routes. But, as the Wall Street Journal points out in a recent article, the US is ill-equipped to address these developments, with only a paltry two icebreakers capable of dealing with the frigid north. Three more are planned, but the Journal reported in November 2022 that construction is well behind schedule. Meanwhile, Russia has about thirty-six Arctic-capable icebreakers with others coming online, and China has four — despite not having any Arctic coastline.

The US ships, old and troubled, are not up to the task of defending America’s Arctic interests, with the only ship periodically deployed to the Arctic regularly sitting in maintenance due to mechanical issues, the Journal says. They are also not sufficiently armed to engage in hostilities should that be necessary. While the new ships under construction for the US Coast Guard are a step in the right direction, they will be nowhere close to enough to deal with the emerging threats to Arctic security.

The Journal’s report details the emerging cooperation between China and Russia in the region, with China playing “a supporting role for Russia.” A joint Russia-China naval group sailed into US exclusive economic zone waters in September 2022, with a comparable event happening with Chinese naval vessels in August 2021. Russia also operates and is building numerous military facilities on its northern coast.

To illustrate the significance of the region, it would take half as long to sail from Japan to the Netherlands via the Arctic compared to traditional sea routes. That would translate to meaningful cost savings and easier supply lines, making it an unacceptable economic and security risk for the Russians and Chinese to control such a critical route.

–John Pietro

Congressional ink

President Joe Biden, our octogenarian in chief, spent this weekend shirtless at a beach. But he’s not alone in showing that the kids’ grandparents are all right. While Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro is eighty years old, that didn’t stop her from getting tatted this weekend with her grandkid and showing it off for all the world to see.

DeLauro’s granddaughter is “off to college in the fall and this strengthens our bond,” she announced. DeLauro’s office did not respond to our questions about her previous history with tattoos, but she is already suggesting that more are on the way. “I have four more grandkids who still haven’t turned eighteen yet so be on the lookout for more new ink!”

The Connecticut congresswoman’s tat is her latest contribution to fashion on the Hill. Almost ten years ago, Benny Johnson shined a bright spotlight on DeLauro’s fashion sense in a BuzzFeed quiz: Hipster Or Member Of Congress?

–Cockburn