The Republican primary has kicked into a higher gear in recent days. Donald Trump terrified one half of the country (and delighted the other) in his dominant, unrepentant CNN town hall appearance last Wednesday. Ron DeSantis is spending a lot of time in Iowa and — in the surest sign yet that he really wants to be president — appearing jacket-less among normal people. (10/10 fake laugh, Governor.)
The coming few weeks will see more candidates make it official. With Florida’s legislative session done and dusted, a DeSantis announcement is just around the corner. In a lengthy profile of Mike Pence, the New York Times yesterday reported the arrival of a new pro-Pence super PAC, Committed to America, a sign that he will soon come clean about his plans. And, on Monday, South Carolina senator Tim Scott will be making a “major announcement” Charleston. No prizes for guessing what that’ll be. (Cockburn scooped the announcement of his exploratory committee last month.)
Few give Scott much of a chance of winning. And the polls show him stuck on single digits, like the rest of this primary’s crowded second tier. But Scott is an intriguing candidate, and one who I’ve long thought might overshoot low expectations. In the Washington Post, David Byler makes a compelling case for bullishness on Scott. He notes Scott’s “impressive war chest” and explains that he enjoys “broad goodwill” from across the GOP in a way that few other second-tier candidates do.
Byler argues that Scott is in the third-best position in the race behind Trump and DeSantis. Allow me to co-sign this claim. That might sound like a stretch, but if not Scott, who? For all his energy and airtime, Vivek Ramaswamy still looks like a diversion rather than a serious option. Mike Pence is loathed by half the party and is too hardline on social issues for a big chunk of the other. Maybe fellow South Carolinian, Nikki Haley, but she is a declared candidate whose campaign has so far shown no momentum. Oh, and, did you know Asa Hutchinson is running for president? Larry Elder anyone?
Until now, Scott’s inoffensiveness has been a weakness: yes, few object to him but you need enthusiasm to win a primary, the thinking goes. A recent NBC report captured this dynamic neatly by rounding up all the nice things Scott’s senate colleagues have to say about him then noting that none of them have endorsed him yet. He is still waiting for Senate support, but this week he recruited former Tennessee governor Bill Haslam as national co-chair.
There’s a scenario in this primary where inoffensiveness becomes a strength. If the race becomes a referendum on Trump (and who wants to bet against that right now?), then the question is which of the alternatives can build a big enough coalition to beat him. Perhaps anyone-but-Trump moderates will be happy with DeSantis even if they don’t like what he has said about Ukraine, have their doubts about a scorched-earth war on woke or oppose his six-week abortion ban. But if DeSantis slips, Scott is well-positioned to build a broader coalition than many of his rivals. Will this happen? Probably not. Could it? Sure.
Paradoxically, Scott’s broad appeal is built a distinctive brand of Republicanism: he plays up his deal-making in the Senate and puts forth a positive vision of America, especially on race, that contrasts with the hyperbolic anti-racism of the left while eschewing the culture-war belligerence of DeSantis and others. It’s probably not a winning message in this primary, but it makes Scott the odd man out. And, in a country weary with the tenor of political debate and showing no appetite for the likely presidential choice they’ll soon face, that’s not always a bad place to be.
On our radar
FEINSTEIN FORGETS SENATE ABSENCE Dianne Feinstein is back in action. The California senator returned to the Hill last week after an extended absence following a case of shingles. There have been doubts about mental faculties for some time now, and a conversation with Slate’s Jim Newell won’t exactly reassure her constituents. Feinstein was asked about her absence and denied she’d ever been away from the Senate.
ADVICE FROM A LOSER 2020 Democratic presidential also-ran Andrew Yang offers Vivek Ramaswamy some unsolicited advice on how to win the primary in Politico. Yang offers his guidance to “a fellow techie” in spite of their numerous political differences. Exactly why Ramaswamy would take advice from Yang is a mystery. The best he managed was sixth place in the first round of the Iowa caucuses.
‘ASSHOLES TO WOMEN’ Republican congresswoman Nancy Mace urged her party to take a more moderate approach to abortion in an interview with Punchbowl today. “I’m talking about birth control access, rape and incest exceptions, very reasonable,” she said. “We can’t continue being assholes to women. We’ve got to show some compassion.”
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McConnell and Trump enjoy rare shared victory in Kentucky
The establishment triumphed in Kentucky — and both Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump got their man.
Attorney General Daniel Cameron romped to victory, trouncing the twelve-candidate field and winning just under 50 percent of the vote in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Importantly, Florida governor Ron DeSantis did not get his woman. Wealthy businesswoman Kelly Craft spent millions of dollars on her own campaign, only to come in a distant third.
DeSantis’s last-second endorsement of Craft may have been a short-term loss, but Craft and her husband are likely to remain important Republican megadonors, giving DeSantis presumed goodwill with the Craft family going into his likely presidential bid.
On the Democratic side, incumbent governor Andy Beshear avoided a plethora of primary protest votes being cast against him. Four years ago, almost 48 percent of Republicans voted for candidates other than incumbent Republican governor Matt Bevin, perhaps foreshadowing his narrow defeat to Beshear that November.
The next decision facing Cameron as he looks to unite Republicans heading into November is who he wants as his running mate. Craft could offer significant financial resources; the race’s runner-up, agriculture commissioner Ryan Quarles could complement Cameron in the rural parts of the state, and even small-town mayor Alan Keck could prove a helpful partner in crime if Cameron wants to double down on a new generation of Republican talent.
It’s also possible that he looks beyond his field of primary rivals to someone like State Senator Julie Raque Adams, who has also represented Louisville on its city council, or even State Senator Max Wise, who was Craft’s running mate. The only counties that Craft carried on Tuesday are represented by Wise in Frankfort; some Kentucky observers actually credit Wise, and not prominent Craft endorser James Comer, for her strength in those areas.
–Matthew Foldi
Don’t stand up our allies, Joe
China is on the march in the Pacific, striking deals and expanding its security, economic and informational influence. And President Biden was supposed to visit Papua New Guinea this week to bolster the US’s counterpunch. Instead, as the debt limit negotiations push ever closer to the edge, the president canceled the trip.
No US president has ever visited PNG, and the country planned to make the day of Biden’s trip a holiday and pull out all of the stops. He was supposed to sign a new defense agreement with the country. Originally, Biden was also set to meet with heads of state from the Pacific Islands Forum, which — as the name suggests — is an association of Pacific island nations. It was a huge opportunity to show that the US sees and cares about its Pacific counterparts, and that it is a worthwhile partner. Now, the festivities will come to naught and the chance for reigniting America’s regional prowess must be postponed.
Home to some of the last countries that recognize Taiwan, and on the front lines of any fight with China, America is risking wholly unnecessary consequences by failing to properly address Beijing’s challenge in the Pacific region.
–John Pietro
From the site
Kevin Dahlgren: How tranq has made the fentanyl crisis even worse
Aidan McLaughlin: Chris Licht’s troubled first year at CNN
Roger Kimball: John Durham exposes the whole anti-Trump caper
Poll watch
PRESIDENT BIDEN JOB APPROVAL
Approve 41.6% | Disapprove 53.7% | Net Approval -12.1
(RCP average)
PERCENTAGE OF AMERICANS WHO, AT SOME POINT IN THEIR LIFE, HAVE BEEN TOLD BY A DOCTOR THEY HAVE DEPRESSION
2015: 19.6% | 2019: 21.6% | 2023: 29%
(Gallup)
Best of the rest
Ben Terris, New York: Frank Luntz can’t quit
Peter Beaumont,the Guardian: Author resigns from PEN America board amid row over Russia writers panel
Janet Adamy, Wall Street Journal: Young Americans are dying at alarming rates, reversing years of progress
Jeremiah Johnson, Infinite Scroll: Ugh, capitalism
Nicole Gelinas, the Hill: No room at the inn — except in New York!
David M. Drucker, the Dispatch: In Iowa, Ron DeSantis shops retail (for votes)
