Ron DeSantis is doing just fine

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Oliver Wiseman

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Ron DeSantis is doing just fine

https://thespectator.com/newsletter/ron-desantis-is-doing-just-fine-dc-diary-04-19-23/

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Ron DeSantis is doing just fine

Is Ron DeSantis a shoo-in for the 2024 Republican nomination or this cycle’s Scott Walker — an overhyped early favorite who flops in dramatic fashion? A lot of very over-caffeinated coverage of the Florida governor seems to assume these are the only two possibilities. Never mind that he still hasn’t announced a presidential bid. Never mind that it is still only April, and we’re still nine months out from anyone actually voting. So far, 2024 punditry has veered from one extreme to the other on DeSantis’s chances.

For at least a…

Ron DeSantis is doing just fine

Is Ron DeSantis a shoo-in for the 2024 Republican nomination or this cycle’s Scott Walker — an overhyped early favorite who flops in dramatic fashion? A lot of very over-caffeinated coverage of the Florida governor seems to assume these are the only two possibilities. Never mind that he still hasn’t announced a presidential bid. Never mind that it is still only April, and we’re still nine months out from anyone actually voting. So far, 2024 punditry has veered from one extreme to the other on DeSantis’s chances.

For at least a month, conventional wisdom has been bearish, largely thanks to polls that show DeSantis stalling in his effort to make inroads against Trump and the internal GOP dynamics around the Trump indictment. Suddenly, everyone seems sure that DeSantis hasn’t got what it takes to secure the nomination. And his every move is interpreted as the latest step of a candidate destined for failure.

And so it has been with DeSantis’s trip to Washington this week. The fact that Trump snagged endorsements from a few Florida House members just before the state’s governor was set to woo lawmakers is being overhyped as a major embarrassment. Politico called it “the latest indication of the early shine dulling on a candidate initially healed by Republicans who don’t want Trump to be their party’s 2024 nominee — and more proof of Trump’s indictment bolstering his standing in the GOP field.”

To be clear, it has been a difficult few weeks for DeSantis. He has got bogged down in his fight with Disney, he has had to choose from two politically unpalatable options, having been asked to sign a six-week abortion ban by Florida lawmakers, and he has struggled to show huge progress, whether in the polls or the endorsement battle. But these developments are surely being over-interpreted. Semafor reports that Chris Christie, a paid ABC contributor, says that DeSantis’s actions towards Disney, which owns ABC, mean he isn’t a real conservative. How will he survive this devastating attack?!

The results of a new YouGov survey show signs of Trump’s lead narrowing again after a big bounce in March. The April poll puts Trump at 52 percent and DeSantis at 36 percent. It’s possible that Trump’s recent poll mini-surge was about the indictment and not the primary. As pollster Patrick Ruffini observes, “for most voters the primary hasn’t really begun.”

For that reason it’d be a mistake to get too hung up on these small polling shifts at this early stage. Whatever the numbers say, DeSantis still has a lot to prove. But even after a bumpy few weeks he has a lot going for him. No other candidate has emerged as a serious rival to Trump. His position as the default anti-Trump candidate looks reasonably secure. His main rival is an old man spending a lot of his time on calls with his legal team and flogging NFTs.

Meanwhile, DeSantis hasn’t actually declared yet. The Dispatch reports that Republican insiders in Florida expect an announcement in mid-May. Presidential primaries are tough auditions, as they should be. And DeSantis could well become the latest in a long line of overhyped rising stars who proceed to fall flat on their faces. For now, though, he is a strong contender in the early stages of a very long race. Just as he was a month ago.

On our radar

FETTERMAN RETURNS TO THE SENATE Pennsylvania senator John Fetterman is back at work. Here’s his opening statement as a Senate subcommittee chair.

BIDEN AND MCCARTHY STILL MILES APART Kevin McCarthy published his party’s debt-limit plan today. Those hoping for a swift resolution to the debt ceiling standoff won’t have liked the White House response. Biden dismissed the proposal as a “MAGA economic agenda.”

JUSTICES WEIGH ABORTION PILL CASE The Supreme Court has yet to decide whether to overrule a lower-court order that would limit access to the abortion pill mifepristone. The justices have allowed the drug to remain on the market until Friday as they continue to deliberate. The case is the first major abortion case handled by the Supreme Court since Dobbs.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. launched his presidential campaign in Boston today. Bobby Kennedy’s son and JFK’s nephew is challenging Camelot fanboy Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination. These days, Kennedy is mostly known for his anti-vaccine activism, and the issue was at the forefront of his announcement today. A USA Today/Suffolk poll published today puts RFK Jr. at14 percent among voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020. That’s a surprisingly strong showing for what has been dismissed as a kooky, no-hope shot at the White House.

–Oliver Wiseman

Fox has dealt with its Dominion problem, but not its Trump problem

Fox News hosts and anchors will all be breathing a sigh of relief after their employer settled at the eleventh hour yesterday, sparing them from having to testify in the most watched media trial in years. But while the Dominion lawsuit has been dealt with, the dynamic that got Fox into this mess will still be there as long as Donald Trump remains in the limelight. Emails and texts made public thanks to the lawsuit demonstrate Fox journalists and executives’ unease at taking on obvious lies told by the former president. How will they handle it next time? .

–Oliver Wiseman