Biden’s damage-limitation campaign

When Joe Biden announced his desire for South Carolina to move to the front of the line, ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire, in a reshuffle of his party’s primary calendar, he used race as the justification.

“We must ensure that voters of color have a voice in choosing our nominee much earlier in the process and throughout the entire early window,” he said in a letter to the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee sent late last year.

The proposal, to which the DNC gave the green light, was patronage dressed up as principle. South Carolina saved…

When Joe Biden announced his desire for South Carolina to move to the front of the line, ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire, in a reshuffle of his party’s primary calendar, he used race as the justification.

“We must ensure that voters of color have a voice in choosing our nominee much earlier in the process and throughout the entire early window,” he said in a letter to the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee sent late last year.

The proposal, to which the DNC gave the green light, was patronage dressed up as principle. South Carolina saved Biden’s presidential bid in 2020, and this was one way for the president to repay the favor. But what was supposed to be an expression of Biden’s power over his party has become another banana skin on his path to re-election.

Biden’s plan quickly hit a snag: the bloody-mindedness of Granite Staters. Pesky New Hampshire has a state law that requires it hold its primaries a week earlier than any other state. The Republican in the governor’s office (that’s potential presidential contender Chris Sununu) and the GOP in control of the legislature aren’t in a hurry to give the president what he wants by scrapping that rule. And New Hampshire Democrats, desperate to keep their state’s spot in the limelight every four years, aren’t proving all that helpful in finding a workaround.

The DNC has set a June 3 deadline for states to comply with the new timetable, but with no solution in site, Politico reports that the national party is considering pushing that date back. It’s not yet clear exactly how states that do not play ball will be punished, but this arcane imbroglio sets up an awkward choice for Biden: stick with the timetable he proposed but forfeit the primary of the cycle, or cave, add your name to the New Hampshire ballot and look hopelessly incompetent at party management.

Assuming no solution is found, Team Biden will likely choose not to contest the primary at all. Yes, it would be an embarrassing quirk for one of his eccentric rivals, Marianne Williamson or RFK, Jr., to jump out to a lead — but it’s something the president can wave away as a meaningless technicality. Things would get a lot dicier were Biden to compete and underwhelm. Then the sharks — including one from California with slicked-back hair — would start to circle. Plus, even if things go well in New Hampshire, the stage-managed octogenarian can’t have much of an appetite for the retail politics demanded by those needy Granite State voters. Far better to jet into South Carolina, give a few speeches and deliver a thumping win in a state where he is well positioned to do so.

Asked about the primary calendar today, South Carolina kingmaker and Biden ally Jim Clyburn offered a refreshingly unvarnished assessment. “Why should President Biden sit back and allow a state that he finished fifth in be first up?” he said in an interview with Chris Wallace this morning.

“Isn’t Biden, in effect, stacking the deck, moving states that he knows he can win, even if there’s no chance he can win them in the general election?” asked Wallace.

“I don’t think you’re stacking the deck. I think you’re avoiding embarrassment,” replied Clyburn. “And that is what he is attempting to avoid here.”

Clyburn’s frankness reveals the weakness of Biden’s position. “I would expect anyone to do the same,” said Clyburn of the president’s chicanery. But is that really true? A president in a strong position wouldn’t be wasting time worrying about “avoiding embarrassment” in the primary.

But Biden isn’t that president: a majority of his own party would rather he not run again, two-thirds of the country think he isn’t mentally up to the job of president, and all signs point to an entirely negative campaign strategy focused on the terrible other guy. So far, his campaign for re-election is off to an underwhelming start: unreleased (so presumably anemic) fundraising numbers, bad polls and a palpable lack of enthusiasm. Add the minor embarrassment of the primary calendar scuffle to the list.

Biden is very likely a president who gets to run again. But given his dire ratings and obvious shortcomings, he’s not a president who gets to do so without losing a bit of sleep along the way.

On our radar

US-TAIWAN DEAL IMMINENT The US and Taiwan are ready to sign a trade deal in the face of Chinese anger. “We look forward to continuing these negotiations and finalizing a robust and high-standard trade agreement,” said US Trade Representative Katherine Tai.

DEBT TALKS HALT An encouraging week of progress on debt-ceiling talks has come to a less encouraging conclusion. The White House and House Republicans paused talks this afternoon. “We’ve got to get movement by the White House and we don’t have the movement yet so, yeah, we’re in a pause,” said Kevin McCarthy.

BLING RING Business is clearly booming for GOP consultant Jeff Roe. A tipster sent Cockburn a picture of Roe rocking a low-key and understated chain at the Kentucky Derby. So much for quiet luxury.

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Senator says DeSantis should run… in 2028

One of Ron DeSantis’s contemporaries in Congress strongly believes he should wait out 2024 and run in the future as opposed to challenging Donald Trump for the GOP nomination.

Oklahoma senator Markwayne Mullin — the subject of an extensive upcoming Spectator profile — related his views in his hometown of Stilwell, Oklahoma this past week, noting that DeSantis, his fellow congressional class of 2012 member, has struggled to connect with people and has limits to any personality-based approach to politics.

“Ron just isn’t charismatic, he doesn’t make you want to invite him to sit with you for a beer,” Senator Mullin said. The idea that DeSantis should wait his turn instead of trying to advance his prospects isn’t one that was applied to Trump himself, of course — who Mullin has enthusiastically endorsed in 2024.

“Ron will be able to have a shot at this in four years,” Mullin told me, “but if he crashes and burns this cycle that won’t be another chance.”

Mullin echoed the critiques of many DeSantis skeptics, namely that he is too impersonal, struggles with personal charisma and will have problems translating his confrontational style to the national stage.

“I just think he’d be better off waiting,” Mullin said. Many of his fellow Trump supporters would agree.

My full profile of Senator Mullin will appear in the July issue. Subscribe here now so you don’t miss it.

–Ben Domenech

Is Joe Manchin going back to school?

Senator Joe Manchin is eyeing the presidency… of West Virginia University, multiple Mountain State sources tell Cockburn.

While Manchin hasn’t publicly expressed interest in the job, the stars may be aligning perfectly for him. Charleston political circles have been abuzz with the rumors of his interest for weeks now.

Seventy-five-year-old Manchin will be weighing all options that don’t entail a near-certain defeat at the ballot box in West Virginia next year, meaning a near-certain defeat at the national ballot box with a quixotic third party presidential campaign is unlikely.

The presidency of WVU, which Manchin attended on a football scholarship before an injury derailed his career, makes a lot of sense for both parties. Current WVU president Gordon Gee is almost eighty — and he has already been the president of more universities than anyone else in America.

Manchin would inject immediate star power (and presumably, millions of dollars) into the school, which can desperately use it.

Importantly, Republican governor Jim Justice, who is currently running against Manchin for Senate, can’t appoint himself to a vacancy. West Virginia Democrats would give him a list of candidates to pick from, in the event that Manchin does call it quits early.

–Cockburn