Welcome to Thunderdome. It’s obvious that when it comes to 2024, Donald Trump doesn’t want the race to be about the culture war issues that he views as a major drag from the past few years of elections, with abortion at the top of the list. He’d rather it be a race about immigration, the economy, and oddly enough, his own persecution by the Deep State (which motivates his core supporters, but not many others).
What’s clear is that in the aftermath of his statement on abortion, Republicans aren’t taking up Trump’s call. Understand this, it’s not a question of federal policy, where very few Republicans have been pushing for a national ban — instead, it’s about things like the Arizona Supreme Court decision which stood by an 1864 law as the law of the state in the post-Dobbs environment. Trump’s initial reaction was to promise that the state would “remedy” the problem — and his campaign put out a memo downplaying the issue. This general take was echoed by famed political genius Kari Lake, who put out a campaign video that read as more pro-abortion than not.
But this week, the Arizona Republican House was having none of it, blocking efforts to change the law. This continues the trend of state legislatures, even those with narrow Republican majorities, taking positions well to the right of Trump on abortion. And one person in particular who seems to enjoy turning the knife is former Trump foe Ron DeSantis, who has repeatedly defended the six-week ban he signed on the issue. Here he is fighting with a reporter about it this week, even tweaking Trump by saying on the fall’s abortion referendum that reporters should “ask [Trump] about that.”
Republicans obviously haven’t figured out their message on this issue, and pro-life willingness to go on offense seems confined to the state level. But they aren’t going to be able to just wave a magic wand and have it disappear as a major issue motivating Democratic voters and closing off inroads among socially liberal suburbanites. Trump may wish they’re not going to talk about it. But if you think that at the RNC this summer it won’t be a major topic of discussion, just consider the roster of speakers likely to be on the main stage — many of whom are now well to the right of their nominee. It’s going to be a thing.
Trump gaining on Biden among youth
Some polling updates of interest:
Former president Donald Trump is cutting deeper into President Joe Biden’s lead among young voters, according to a new poll.
Biden leads Trump, 45 percent to 37 percent, among people ages 18 to 29 in a Harvard Youth Poll released Thursday, with 16 percent undecided. That eight-percentage point margin is much smaller than at this point in the 2020 election. At that time, Biden was leading Trump by 23 percentage points among young people.
Biden’s margins widen when the pool is restricted to registered and likely voters. But, still, his nineteen-point lead over Trump among the voters under thirty who are considered likely to turn out is significantly smaller than his thirty-point advantage this time four years ago.
Biden holds wide leads among likely voters who are non-white and women — up by forty-three points and thirty-three points over Trump, respectively. He trounces Trump among the higher-educated set, leading the presumptive Republican nominee by forty-seven points among likely voters who are college graduates and twenty-three points among college students.
But Biden’s margins are far slimmer — or nonexistent — among other key demographics. He’s just six percentage points ahead of Trump among likely voters who are young men, according to the poll, and just three points ahead among white voters. When it comes to young people without college degrees, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.
The latest Emerson poll has Trump back up on Biden — it’s notable that RFK continues to take from both candidates equally when added to the question list.
The leftists planning to disrupt Chicago
Eli Lake and Olivia Reingold report:
In a room full of 450 far-left activists, a leader with the Freedom Road Socialist Organization kicks off a chant: “Protest is a right — not just for the rich and white.”
“Have you heard that the Democratic National Convention is coming to Chicago?” Joe Iosbaker asks the crowd. “Are we going to let ’em come here without a protest? This is Chicago, goddamn it — we’ve got to give them a 1968 kind of welcome.”
In 1968, the Democratic Convention in Chicago was a bloodbath, with 600 arrests in one street battle that was broadcast all over the world. And the group that met here last Saturday, in the local headquarters of the Teamsters Union, wants to repeat history when Joe Biden is named the presidential nominee at the DNC this August. They oppose the president they call “Genocide Joe” for backing Israel in its war against Hamas.
“If we don’t get a permit, are we still going to march?” Iosbaker asked the crowd, who responded with a chorus of “Yeah!”
“Are we still gonna march within sight and sound? Are we gonna let Genocide Joe come here and not hear us and see us? No! From Chicago to Palestine, protesting is not a crime.”
Over a single day, the “March on DNC 2024” conference gathered seventy-five organizations to discuss how they plan to disrupt the convention. Speakers told the crowd how to flood the streets without getting arrested, how to spot members of the Secret Service, and how to say “Death to America” in Farsi. At one point, when news of Iran’s attack on Israel spread throughout the room, the crowd erupted in cheers.
Later that day, Jerry Boyle, an attorney and volunteer for the National Lawyers Guild, a nonprofit that says it acts “as the legal arm of social movements and the conscience of the legal profession,” gave a pep talk on how to “know your power” and overwhelm the police.
“My colleagues will be here later today talking about your rights,” Boyle told the crowd. “Think of it more about power and the risk you present to the police.”
He told attendees to look out for police carrying “mass arrest kits,” which he says contain supplies like “a bunch of flex cuffs and all the paperwork” for a bust.
“I’m not here to tell you what the law is,” Boyle told the crowd. “I’m here to tell you what you can get away with.”
The New York show trial rolls on
Two things are becoming increasingly clear as Donald Trump’s historic trial gets underway: it will be difficult for him to get a trial most people will accept as fair, and he’s likely to be helped politically no matter what happens.
The perception of unfairness starts with the man who brought the charges, Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg. District attorneys are elected in New York, and in heavily Democratic Manhattan that means aspirants have to appeal to highly partisan primary voters. Bragg did that with repeated statements regarding how many times he had sued Trump or his businesses, and promised to hold him accountable. Given the weak legal basis for his felony indictment, a fact even many liberals acknowledge, it’s no surprise that Trump supporters view this prosecution as grounded in politics, not law.
The presiding judge, Juan Merchan, is also easily painted as a partisan. He donated to Biden’s 2020 campaign and his daughter is a Democratic political consultant. Merchan has nonetheless refused to recuse himself.
Then there’s the jury pool. Jurors are selected from residents of New York County, aka Manhattan, one of the most Democratic and liberal counties in the country. Trump received only 12 percent of the vote there in 2020. He would be lucky if the twelve-member jury contains even one person who backed him.
One more thing
In case you missed it, my latest feature in The Spectator print edition is on TikTok and its dangers — I hope you’ll check it out. Two developments this week dramatically increased the likelihood that a forced sale will pass the Congress: first, a blockbuster report revealed that China has been lobbying for ByteDance behind the scenes with Congressional staff — not a popular thing to do. And now, a revised version of the House bill which extends the sale period has been added to the foreign aid package — making for a more palatable decision from senators who balked at the quick turnaround and some Democrats who feared backlash from young voters. What this means is that TikTok will still matter in 2024’s elections, regardless of how quickly things can move. But things are moving, a rarity in today’s Washington.
