Ukraine is keeping calm in defiance of Trump

In 2023, I had coffee with the celebrated Ukrainian novelist Andrey Kurkov, on Yaroslaviv Val Street in the ancient heart of Kyiv. The modern city is built over the ruins of the rampart built by Yaroslav the Wise, the eleventh-century Grand Prince of Kyiv, to keep out invaders. Now, on the third anniversary of the most recent invasion of Ukraine, Kurkov, whose novels are known for their dark humor, is in a much more somber mood. Donald Trump’s savage and surreal attacks on president Zelensky have left the country reeling.

“Of course, Ukrainians are shocked and upset,” he says. “If two weeks ago Russia considered Americans and Poles their main enemies, now Trump has moved Americans almost into the camp of Putin’s allies.” Yet Kurkov sounds a note of defiance that will be familiar to anyone who has spent time in the country.

“The rest of the world is playing funeral music but still Ukraine is not prepared to give up and to succumb to the Putin-Trump effort. The military say the war will go on and they are ready for this.” It’s stirring stuff and the optimism remains contagious. It is only his final words that feel unconvincing: “This is also a chance for the European Union to become stronger and more united.”

My friend Maria Avdeeva, security expert, social media warrior and senior Eurasia fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, shares the sense of outrage at Trump: “It’s ridiculous, everyone is shocked.” Beyond the disbelief, however, is the sense that Trump is getting the fundamentals wrong in his quest for a deal. There’s no evidence that Putin wants to end the war or achieve anything other than complete control of Ukraine, she says. It misses the point to focus on whether Russia keeps the territory it has taken. “Putin wants to put in a puppet government and make us a satellite state like Belarus. He wants Ukraine not to exist as an independent state.” Trump’s tirade against Zelensky has had the predictable effect of rallying support for the embattled president. Maria sends me a link to Zelensky’s “Thank you for your support!” post on X. It has 12 million views and 377,000 likes. 

Roman Hnatiuk, a lugubrious businessman, has given up checking his media. “I can’t read the news,” he moans, over a bowl of borscht. We are in Spelta, a hip bakery-turned-restaurant in Podil, Kyiv’s answer to Greenwich Village. “I’m serious. I get sick in the stomach, I don’t know what’s going to happen to Ukraine, Europe, the world. The worst scenario is for us to be pushed into elections and pro-Russian populists come to power. Then we repeat the Georgia scenario. With the number of weapons in Ukraine, that means civil war.” First America pushed Ukraine to give up its nukes and promised it independence. “Now they’re ready to sell us to Russia. One thing I know for sure is that if America insists, Europe, the West, everybody, will sell us down the drain.”

One positive consequence of Russia’s invasion, which Trump’s scuttle will only accelerate, is the meteoric rise of Ukraine’s defense tech industry. In subzero temperatures, 3,000 parka-clad arms dealers, entrepreneurs, spooks and hacks from forty countries descend on Mystetskyi Arsenal, a handsome (and appropriate) repurposed venue for the largest event in the sector’s history. Welcome to the world of advanced robotics, autonomous AI-driven drones, anti-radiation autopilot systems, laser weapons, visual inertial odometry, Raptor EO/IR gimbaled sensors, kamikaze swarming drones in GNSS-denied environments, distributed acoustic weapon location systems and other mind-spinning innovations. Strix Air, which provides radio control technology for drones, cuts through the jargon with a succinct summary of its product: “Your assistant in killing more Russians.” “Ukraine has the capability to produce effective, innovative defense solutions at scale and at a fraction of the cost of similar systems from abroad,” says Artem Moroz of Brave1, the government’s defense tech platform. “In the future, this industry can become a cornerstone of Ukraine’s economic recovery and a reliable arsenal for Ukraine’s allies from Europe and overseas.” The West should take note.

Is tech really the answer to this war? Misha Rudominski, twentysomething entrepreneur and co-founder of Himera, the encrypted tactical radio manufacturer, thinks so. Like most of Ukraine’s would-be tech titans, he’s not letting Trump distract him and is focused instead on securing $1.5 million from venture capitalists. Himera already supplies the Ukrainian armed forces and is now dipping its toes in foreign markets, starting with the US Air Force, Estonia and the Philippines. Perhaps it’s the optimism of youth, but Misha is remarkably sanguine about the prospect of Ukraine going it alone without Uncle Sam. “Most battlefield kills these days are from Ukrainian technology — deep strike drones, FPV drones, any kind of drone,” he says. “In 2022, without US help it would have been all over, same in 2023, less so in 2024. Now, with Ukrainian tech and European funding, we can sustain this fight.”

With the costs of weaponry manufactured in Ukraine five to ten times cheaper than the American equivalent, he reckons Europe could bear the costs. He’s probably right, but will Europe agree to it?

l give the last word on Trump’s geopolitical blitzkrieg to Oleksandr, my mole in the special forces. “We’re not worried about it so much,” he says, gloriously unruffled as ever, as Russia launches a massive drone attack on Kyiv. “I think the Americans should be more worried. It’s their country (Trump’s) going to destroy. We’re just going to carry on fighting.”