‘Peace is war’: the unreality of Trump’s Iran diplomacy

Donald Trump’s presidency is often compared to a reality TV show. Yet that conceit barely captures the radical strangeness of his leadership. Trump is a hypnotist, a master of persuasion who tries to shape world events through CONFUSION, BIG BOMBS and CAPITAL LETTERS.

“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” he announced late last night.

For an hour or so, it seemed as if Trump could be right. Iran and Israel did make the right noises, through the correct channels, about a cessation of fire. But then this morning, according to the Israeli Defense Forces, Iran launched another missile at Israel and now the war is back on again – even if Iran has denied breaking the ceasefire.

Sources suggest that a ceasefire may not be working because so many senior Iranian officials have fled or gone into hiding that their troops don’t know whether to stop firing or not.

Regardless, by the time Trump wakes up again, the conflict he grandly dubbed “THE 12 DAY WAR” on social media last night may well be heading toward a second week of hostilities.

Trump senses the hand of the Almighty in his actions. “In a certain and very ironic way,” he mused, after first announcing the ceasefire yesterday, “that perfect ‘hit,’ late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!”

The B-2 strikes, then, have become in Trump’s mind yet another miracle along the way of his great odyssey. Divine providence made the bullet miss in Butler, Pennsylvania, last year. The massive bombs in Iran on Saturday brought peace.

Again channeling the Good Lord, Trump also told Israel and Iran: “Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures. They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH. The future for Israel & Iran is UNLIMITED, & filled with great PROMISE. GOD BLESS YOU BOTH!”

If Iran has just ended the ceasefire before it began, how will Trump the peacemaker respond to such a clear abrogation of his demands?

What seems certain is that, other than a desire to placate Trump through Qatari intermediaries, the incentives for Iran and Israel to keep warring are still in place. Iran may have officially saved face with its telegraphed strikes at US bases in Qatar and Iran yesterday, but the Iranian regime cannot paper over the humiliations of the last few days. Israel, meanwhile, can see that the Iranian regime is buckling on the steps of the escalation ladder.

It’s possible that Tel Aviv felt a pause in the violence now would help overthrow the regime. Yet that would be a curious pivot from the IDF’s “maximalist” campaign against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps so far. Israel’s defense minister has this morning promised “intense strikes” in return. “ISRAEL,” responded Trump, moments ago. “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”

As peace is declared, the war goes on – in a certain and very ironic way. Or, perhaps, in the unreal Trumpian update to George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four: “peace is war” and “strength is ignorance.”