The polls have closed in Britain and the exit poll is in. The BBC exit poll projects that the Labour Party will win a landslide of 410 MPs and the Conservatives will be left with 131 seats. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats will win sixty-one seats, the SNP ten seats and Nigel Farage’s Reform thirteen seats. This would mean a Labour majority of 170 — and would be the Tories’ worst ever result.
If this comes to pass, this will be Labour’s largest number of seats, but a slightly smaller majority than the Tony Blair landslide of 179. This seems to be down to the the level of success that Ed Davey’s party has enjoyed (if the poll is right). If correct, the Liberal Democrats have succeeded in conquering the once true blue stronghold of Surrey. However, Labour figures will be nothing short of delighted with this result. It would give Keir Starmer a huge majority from which to govern.
It would be a devastating result for the Conservative Party. However, it would still be better than some of the recent polling predictions that the Tories could be the third largest party — with the Liberal Democrats taking second place. This is on the top end of many of the MRP predictions for the party in recent days — so as bad as it is, there is likely to be very light relief in Conservative Campaign Headquarters that a total wipeout may have been avoided. The other big loser would be the SNP: reduced to a mere ten MPs.
However, one of the biggest winners from this would be Reform — Nigel Farage’s party will have defied expectations by winning parliamentary representation in double figures. When Farage first returned, winning about five MPs was seen as a big achievement. In recent days, Reform Party figures have reported Labour votes moving to them so some of the gains could be encroaching on Labour — rather than just the Tories — if so.
So, how likely is the exit poll to match reality? While the BBC’s exit poll for the 1992 election missed John Major’s win and predicted that no party would win an overall majority, they have been very accurate in recent years. For the past five UK elections, the exit poll has predicted how many seats will be won by the winning party within an average of four seats. It means this will be treated as an accurate account of what is likely to unfold in the coming hours. But we’ll only really know for sure when the counts get underway and the vote swings become clear.
This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.
