Bolsonaro indicted in alleged coup plot

Brazilian former president Jair Bolsonaro was charged Tuesday for allegedly orchestrating a plan to overturn his 2022 election defeat through a coup. The indictment further complicates his prospects for a political resurgence, as Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet accuses Bolsonaro and his former vice presidential candidate, General Walter Braga Netto, of leading a “criminal organization” with the objective of undermining Brazil’s democracy.

Thirty-four individuals, including prominent military figures, have been named in the charges. Among them are Bolsonaro’s former national security advisor, retired general Augusto Heleno, and former navy commander Almir Garnier Santos. Prosecutors argue that the initial 2021 effort to cast doubt on electronic voting systems escalated the following year after the then-president met with foreign diplomats to push unverified claims of electoral fraud. Authorities contend that the scheme ultimately extended to discussions of a potential coup, including a plot to poison President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and shoot dead Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

“The members of the criminal organization structured at the presidential palace a plan to attack institutions, aiming to bring down the system of the powers and the democratic order, which received the sinister name of ‘Green and Yellow Dagger,’” Gonet wrote in his 272-page indictment about the January 6-esque attacks that shook Brasilia in 2023. “The plan was conceived and taken to the knowledge of the president, and he agreed to it.”

The former president denies wrongdoing. “I have no concerns about the accusations, zero,” Bolsonaro said Tuesday during a visit to the Senate in Brasilia. “Have you seen the coup decree, by any chance? You haven’t. Neither have I.”

The case echoes the legal troubles faced by President Trump last year, who was also accused of attempting to overturn an election loss. Unlike Trump, who was able to push back in the courts, Bolsonaro has already been barred from running for office until 2031 due to a separate election-related conviction. If found guilty, he could face up to twenty-eight years in prison.

While prosecutors argue that the charges are based on evidence and necessary to uphold Brazil’s forty-year-old democracy, Bolsonaro’s allies characterize the indictment as politically motivated. His supporters claim that the left-leaning judiciary, led by Alexandre de Moraes, has been targeting him to prevent a future presidential run. This is yet another example of how far Lula’s acolytes are willing to go to keep him in power, they argue. 

Another Trump parallel: as indictments continue to fly Bolsonaro’s way, his popularity has not suffered. The Paraná Pesquisas Institute, in fact, found in a November survey that Bolsonaro would secure 37.6 percent of votes in a presidential election. Lula trailed behind with 33.6 percent support. A more recent survey by pollster Datafolha found that Lula’s approval rating dropped from 35 percent to 24 percent in December. Two things can be true at the same time, of course, but these numbers have only made it easier for Bolsonaro to claim persecution.

Despite what surveys suggest, Jaír Bolsonaro, who was recently barred from traveling to Washington for Trump’s inauguration, will likely not be able to run for office. However, another Bolsonaro may rise to the occasion: Eduardo, the former president’s third child and a member of Brazil’s chamber of deputies. These last years, Eduardo has become a fixture in Washington, especially in MAGA world. Around inauguration, at an event originally intended to host his father, media executive Steve Bannon introduced Eduardo as “Brazil’s next president.” The very international crowd’s chants clashed — one in Portuguese, the other in English. While Bolsonaro’s party has not budged in backing Bolsonaro Sr., keeping an eye on his child is not a bad idea.