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Donald Trump’s favorite president, William McKinley, added Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines to the American fief at the turn of the twentieth century. Trump once saw Greenland on a map and reportedly said: “Look at the size of this. It’s massive! That should be part of the United States?” Two years later, his language is stronger: “For purposes of national security and freedom throughout the world, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.” Trump’s first proposal to buy Greenland in 2019 was rebuffed by the Danes who have sovereignty over it.
For Trump, this is not just about military bases — US forces have operated in Greenland since World War Two, and a 1951 defense agreement established permanent US installations there. So, what exactly does Greenland have that Trump wants?
Greenland’s location is crucial for the future of global shipping. The island lies at the start of the Northwest passage, a series of sea routes snaking through Canada’s Arctic islands. For parts of the year when there is little ice, ships can now sail between the North Atlantic to the North Pacific. The route has become easier to traverse because there is less ice — ice cover in the Arctic has reduced by around a third since the 1960s — and it is expected to become a major shipping lane.
In 1906 Arctic explorer Roald Amundsen struggled to make the passage in a 68ft fishing boat, but in 2013 the first bulk cargo ship — the 740ft-long Nordic Orion — sailed through, escorted by icebreakers. The following year another cargo ship made the same journey unaided and last year ten commercial vessels made the journey. For routes from the American east coast to Asia and the west coast to Europe — which account for three-in-five journeys through the Panama Canal — the passage shaves off an average distance of 4,300 miles, saving shipping companies thousands. The Nordic Orion journey saved $200,000 and four days’ sailing time. Canadian and American maritime experts say 5 percent of global shipping could use Arctic routes by 2050. By the end of the century the passage could be open for four months of the year.
There are geopolitical factors at play too. Trump sees the expansion of the US energy sector as existential. The melting ice provides opportunities for American mining and oil companies. The Arctic is not protected from drilling like the Antarctic and work by the US Geological Survey has shown that the Arctic may hold a quarter of the world’s remaining oil and gas reserves, most of it offshore. Potential fields to the east of Greenland have an estimated 31.4 billion barrels of oil and natural gas.
The US already is the world’s largest producer of crude oil, some three million barrels a day ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia. US exports of liquified natural gas are set to double over the course of Trump’s second term.
American control of Greenland would also help fend off further Chinese investment in the Arctic. Between 2012 and 2017 China invested $450 billion into Arctic nations, with this focused mainly on energy and mineral exploration. At one point Chinese investment was worth around 12 percent of Greenland’s GDP. China’s involvement is partly driven by the country’s demand for oil, which has almost tripled in two decades.
There is also fierce American competition with China over rare earth elements which are crucial to making superconductors, electric motors and larger bits of infrastructure like wind turbines. A 2023 survey showed that Greenland contained twenty-five of the thirty-four minerals the European Commission considers “critical raw materials,” specifically rare earth elements. Greenland has 1.5 million tons of reserves of rare earth elements that are currently economically mineable — about the same as the entire US. And it has 36 million tons of known deposits. China has almost half of the world’s reserves of rare earth elements and processes 90 percent of them, so Greenland is in the middle of a gold — and zirconium and neodymium — rush. The US is already lobbying to keep Greenland mining projects out of China’s hands.
With so many deposits in an area half the size of the European Union, the island is considered an untouched treasure trove. Trump says his policies of harsh tariffs and expansion are inspired by McKinley, but perhaps he’s following the words of American oil baron J. Paul Getty too: “The meek shall inherit the earth, but not its mineral rights.”
