Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet is at risk of falling apart as the country’s defense establishment turns on him. On Saturday night, Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party and a member of Netanyahu’s coalition, issued the prime minister with an ultimatum. In an extremely critical speech, Gantz blamed Netanyahu for letting personal interests interfere with decisions of national security and allowing a group of extremists to take the helm.
Gantz’s ultimatum includes six demands: the return of the hostages held by Hamas; the destruction of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza; replacing Hamas’s rule with an alternative government; allowing civilians from Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, who were evacuated from their homes months ago, to return to their homes by September 1 (the start of the school year); progress on normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, and passing a law that will force Orthodox Jews to do national service.
If Gantz, Eisenkot and Gallant resign, the government will be left with members who are ill-equipped to run a war
If the demands are not met, Gantz warned that he would withdraw from the coalition. His National Unity Party makes up eight seats in Netanyahu’s sixty-four-seat coalition (out of a total of 120 Knesset seats). Netanyahu’s government can just about survive Gantz’s exit, but it could nevertheless create several difficulties.
It was a strong sense of duty that made Gantz join Netanyahu’s coalition soon after the war against Hamas started, despite the vast political and ideological differences between the two. Gantz and his fellow party member Gadi Eisenkot are former chiefs of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. They brought vital military experience to a coalition made up of politicians with little or none. Both men also enjoy much more popularity in Israel than Netanyahu.
If Gantz and Eisenkot withdraw, defense minister Yoav Gallant may follow. Earlier this week, Gallant targeted Netanyahu with scathing criticism. In a televised address to the nation, he accused Netanyahu of mismanaging the war effort. Gallant — along with many other concerned members of Israel’s defense establishment — are watching with dread as the war against Hamas risks descending into a prolonged and costly conflict of attrition due to Netanyahu’s indecisiveness, his lack of strategic plan for Gaza and allowing far-right elements in his government to set the tone. In his speech, Gallant demanded that Netanyahu declares that Israel will not establish long-term military or civilian governance of Gaza.
Ruling over Gaza, and the return of Israeli settlements to the Strip, is being pushed for by ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — the two most hawkish and nationalist members of Netanyahu’s coalition. It’s an unpopular policy among Israelis that will also alienate Israel’s allies.
If Gantz, Eisenkot and Gallant resign, the government will be left with members who are ill-equipped to run a war. The three generals have been acting as an opposing power to the zealots in government, maintaining a level of sensibility and responsibility. Without them, the likes of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will have a free hand to run things. This could severely undermine Israel’s war effort in ways that could cost lives, damage the country’s security and its relationship with its allies, most of whom already have a fractured relationship with Netanyahu and lack trust and confidence in him.
Netanyahu will find all of Gantz’s demands difficult to come to terms with, but the demand to pass the national service law is the trickiest. Orthodox Jews have enjoyed a controversial and highly unpopular exemption from military service, which is mandatory for all other Israeli Jews and Druze men. Anyone else can volunteer for service. If the law passes, the two ultra-orthodox parties will withdraw from the coalition, triggering its collapse. Netanyahu is therefore unlikely to meet this demand.
The demand to allow northern civilians to return home may also not be possible without much stronger action against Hezbollah, who have been profusely bombing the region. If Israel declares a full war against Hezbollah, the generals’ military experience will become even more indispensable.
Netanyahu may try to pull a last-minute rabbit out of his hat to stop Gantz from leaving. In the meantime, a smear campaign against Gantz has been set in motion. Ultimately, Gantz will need to decide whether to follow through with his threat or not. He is well aware of the repercussions of such move, and thanks to his of sense of duty may be reluctant to resign when June 8 comes around.
This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.
