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One hundred days into the second Donald Trump presidency, his presence in the Oval Office represents the largest sea change in US foreign relations since the end of the Cold War.
Within the space of fewer than four months, Trump has forced Ukraine to deal with reality, by delivering hard truths about what ending the war will require. He has deployed J.D. Vance to shock the international system, with tough messages to our allies in Europe and Asia. Trump’s declaration of a litany of cartels as foreign terror organizations has kicked off a redirection of our relationship with Mexico, Panama and the Western hemisphere. His close relationship with Israel, a clear break with Joe Biden’s approach, has shifted expectations for the Middle East. The possibility of strikes on Iran’s nuclear program are higher than ever – so, too, is the potential for armed conflict between India and Pakistan. And just last night, Trump’s boisterous challenge to Canada – and repeated invitations for them to become the 51st state – has led, unfortunately for their once rising conservatives, to a once unthinkable Liberal party hold.
One notable shift since retaking office has been the President’s rhetoric regarding Russia. He seems increasingly frustrated with Vladimir Putin’s behavior, and while the president’s statements tend to run to the priority of peace, he seems to be irritated at Russian intransigence. His social media post on Putin, “maybe he just doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along,” is a rare public admission that he may have misjudged another world leader whose moves he has, in the past, defended as logical. If the Kremlin proves to be the major block to ending the war, Trump may be willing to get tougher on Russia than once thought.
Above all, though, the conversation at this moment is dominated by a new Cold War with China. Here, the chaotic nature of the President’s trade war is already having the most impact, with the falling port traffic indicative of what’s to come. The best we can hope for is that this war can stay cold. As Walter Russell Mead writes today:
World tensions are rising, not falling. The danger that escalating tensions between the two superpowers and their associates could trigger a war that nobody wants is more prevalent than ever. Neither China nor the US at this point wants to turn their Cold War hot. Even so, their rivalry increases the escalatory potential of crises wherever their interests collide.
What all this means for the future depends a great deal on how Trump and his team prioritize American interests over the demands of the decaying international order. They have bitten off quite a lot all at once, and additional events could set off dominoes as yet unseen. The next hundred days could bring resolutions in a number of these policy areas, but tensions can only build for so long – and given that the old decrepit international order ignored so many fundamental problems while growing fat and happy with the way things were, those tensions are coming from everywhere.
Trump ran on a promise to restore American strength and reorient the country for the future. After 100 days, it’s clear achieving that goal may be even harder than his supporters imagined.
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