The winners and losers of the 2024 election

Every election has winners and losers that extend beyond the politicians themselves, but in this particularly unique situation, the sheer number of outside individuals, movements and institutions who can be categorized as winning or losing based on last night’s sweeping result for Donald Trump and Republicans is astounding. 

Winner: the bro army and its defenders. The decision to lean so hard into appealing to the American manosphere, with its testosterone-fueled UFC events and a litany of podcasts hosted by comedians with mass appeal to young men, ran the risk of turning off female voters or seeming to only prioritize the frat vote. But it proved absolutely correct — and not just the Joe Rogan interview, though that was a key step in the journey. Recognizing that young men of all ethnicities were gettable on a bigger scale than Republicans had reached in the past was a feat of genius on the part of the Trump campaign, and many politicians will learn from the strategy and try to emulate it. As other elements of communication have broken down, the world of bro podcasts is now a replacement for engaged talk radio, and a direct avenue for appealing to a disaffected portion of the electorate that appreciates respect.

Loser: the “we have nothing to offer but abortions, abortions, abortions” portion of the left. Fueled in part by their overperformance on the issue in 2022, there were many on the left who seemed only interested in hammering away on their demands for unlimited deaths for unborn infants, ignoring all other subjects along the way. The single issue abortion voter exists on both sides, but they’re only part of the coalition, and the failure of multiple ballot initiatives on the subject shows that it has lost some of its salience in the years since the shock of Dobbs. What’s more, the unwillingness on the Kamala campaign’s part to sound any moderate notes was a warning sign for religious believers. Harris plummeted in support among Catholics in part because of her insistence that Catholic hospitals, too, would be forced to perform abortions and her failure to have any note of compromise even for late-term abortions. For something that was supposed to be central to her appeal, abortion may well have cost her more than it benefited her in every swing state.

Winner: Silicon Valley. The technology kings — Elon Musk chief among them, but others as well — come out looking prescient in their treatment of the former president’s campaign. Mark Zuckerberg boosted Trump after his assassination survival, the tech investor class was emphatically on his side and Jeff Bezos’s refusal to let the Washington Post endorse in the final weeks shows they understood the moment better than others, particularly better than…

Loser: Hollywood. Celebrities totally misjudged the power of their popularity and appeal to voters. The idea that Taylor Swift would move votes in some significant way seems laughable in retrospect, as do all the other many celeb-driven attempts to impact the election for Kamala. They may like your music and stream your movies, but that doesn’t mean anyone thinks you’re in touch with who they are. And late night hosts fell into the same category — the pompous attitudes of Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel, the lectures of John Oliver and blatant spin of Saturday Night Live had no truck with the American people, who tuned them out for their comedic betters. The people who think they direct the culture, if they ever did, just don’t anymore.

Winner: Republicans who made peace with Trump, even uneven and contentious peace. Brian Kemp, Mitch McConnell, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and yes, the king of them all, J.D. Vance all made peace with Trump after he had seemingly made himself too toxic four years ago to have a political future, and they reaped the benefit — especially Vance, who was critical of Trump even after his 2016 election and managed to go from near-NeverTrumper to the man’s vice president. Many of them had to swallow their pride to do this, but it is the only way any of them were going to find a path forward in a party coalition that is unified around Trump and his agenda for the foreseeable future. Pour one out for Mike Pence.

Loser: Liz Cheney and the neocon movement. Distinct from the Lincoln Project anti-Trump grifters, the neoconservatives — Cheney chief among them — tried to find a path toward influencing Trump in his first term, but failed to achieve the kind of power they wanted and could see Trump trending away from them steadily, firing John Bolton and ditching the generals they favored to keep him in line and away from steps like withdrawing from Afghanistan. The path forward closed for them, so Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and others joined with Democrats to instead try and exact revenge on Trump staffers through the January 6 hearings and multiple acts of lawfare, seeking ruin for their political enemies. But their decision to cross over fully into the Democrats’ coalition now leaves them holding the blame for their failure and inability to bring along Haley voters or others (under the foolhardy belief they had any coattails electorally). The lie that this was just about protecting the nation from Trump instead of score-settling was shown in Cheney and Kinzinger endorsing Democrat Colin Allred in Texas against Ted Cruz — a backing that worked out so well, Cruz beat Allred by nearly ten points.

Winner: Mark Halperin, Substack and guerrilla media generally. This was the election where outside media sources really did seem to take over the conversation regularly, driving alternate narratives about the most important stories of the day. Halperin was ahead of the curve on Joe Biden’s mental decline, Substackers repeatedly revealed embarrassing aspects of the Biden-Harris administration, and solo reporters and small entities did reporting on the economy, crime and the border that could take flight just as quickly as a legacy media piece — including exposing many aspects of the government-digital censorship approach that shocked many people with its blatant disrespect of the first amendment.

Loser: CBS News. You could put this at the feet of a number of different entities, but consider just how many botches CBS had in the closing months of the campaign — the 60 Minutes interview edit, the botched debate and shutting off of JD Vance’s mic, the hair-on-fire coverage from Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan, and of course the embarrassing fallout from the morning show interview with Ta-Nehisi Coates were all marks of a network that exposed itself as far more partisan than once thought in the course of 2024. There are a great many media losers this cycle, but CBS could be the biggest one in terms of going from a relatively inoffensive network for Republican viewers to one that is anathema.

Loser: Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. The bet they made pulling the ripcord on Joe Biden looks appallingly bad in retrospect, and revisionist history will suggest in the minds of Americans that he just wasn’t as bad as he really was in the end. Getting rid of him looks like a terrible miscalculation that, even if it couldn’t have won them the White House again, could’ve minimized the damage and perhaps kept key Senate seats such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. But the choice was made, and now it’s a legacy-defining decision for both of them.

Winner: Joe Biden. Still the only man to beat Donald Trump. Get him an extra tapioca to celebrate today with a smile.