No sign of a clear front-runner at this year’s Oscars

This year’s Oscar nominations were always going to be more low-key than usual, overshadowed as they inevitably have been both by the fires in Los Angeles — which has led to repeated delays in their announcement — and by Donald Trump’s inauguration, the after-effects of which are still rippling in Hollywood circles days later. It was therefore amusing to see that The Apprentice, the highly controversial biopic of the young Trump, has been Oscar-nominated for two of its actors, Sebastian Stan as Trump and the much-admired Jeremy Strong as his mentor Roy Cohn. Strong faces quite a challenge in the Best Supporting Actor from, among others, his Succession co-star Kieran Culkin, who is widely tipped to win for his performance in A Real Pain.

Otherwise, this year’s nominations are hardly a great surprise, although there is still no clear front-runner. There are a few omissions that may raise eyebrows — The Last Showgirl, which was tipped to see its stars Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis both recognized, is nowhere to be seen — and Denzel Washington’s deliciously OTT performance in Gladiator II has been ignored, albeit in a particularly strong list of contenders — and some inclusions that are equally surprising.

Neither Nickel Boys or I’m Still Here have made much of a dent on the public consciousness, which is why their strong showing across the nominations seems baffling, and the continued love for The Substance, which is recognized for Best Picture, Best Actress (Demi Moore) and Original Screenplay, among others, suggests that this is probably the wildest and most out-there genre picture to meet this kind of acclaim in memory.

Still, the Oscars have fallen into a habit over the past few years of pairing a sober, mainstream adult entertainment with a batshit crazy and rather more colorful movie, and letting them fight it out. This year is no exception. The Brutalist, which is probably the narrow favorite in a crowded field, can usefully be compared to Oppenheimer (three-hour run-time, deeply somber subject matter, titanic lead performance, etc.) and has duly been nominated for ten Oscars, many of which it will probably win. It faces competition both from Jacques Audiard’s Mexican trans musical Emilia Pérez, with thirteen (!) nominations and Wicked, which has punched above its weight with another ten noms. It will be fascinating to see what happens in this most unpredictable of years.

Other nominations of note? Conclave, once felt to be an awards season front-runner, is slumping, despite recognition as Best Picture and for Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Best Supporting Actor (Isabella Rossellini) and Best Adapted Screenplay for Peter Straughan. James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has made a strong showing with eight nominations including Best Director, Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, and could yet build momentum behind it if Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist end up dividing voters. Adrien Brody’s soulful, tragic performance in the latter will probably win him his second Best Actor award, but don’t discount Timothée Chalamet as Dylan: the Academy loves a real-life impersonation, and Chalamet sings his own songs, too, which gets him brownie points.

I was delighted to see that The Wild Robot isn’t just nominated for Best Animated Feature but that Kris Bowers’s superb score — for my money, the best of last year — is recognized, too, and that Denis Villeneuve’s mighty Dune: Part Two is nominated for Best Picture.

There is every chance that the Academy are waiting for Dune: Messiah to give this extraordinary series of films the honor that they deserve. This may be a lower-key set of nominations than some years, and Wicked is the sole big-budget hit amongst the tally, but when Conan O’Brien steps up to host the event on Sunday March 2, there will at least be the delicious frisson of the unexpected, for the first time in ages.