The pros and cons of VP J.D. Vance

The most surprising aspect of Donald Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his vice presidential running mate is how unsurprising it is, following months of debate as to the best choice for the GOP. 

The number of candidates considered seriously by Trump was a much shorter list than the wide swathe initially announced as being asked for background materials, and Vance was always at or near the top. He has an outside of politics celebrity that Trump found appealing, a compelling life story retold across platforms, the combination of a blue chip pedigree and military experience and a bro sense of humor that bound him closely with Donald Trump Jr. 

The positives for Vance are that he represents a loyal soldier for the Trump movement and agenda, an Aspen Ideas skeptic turned MAGA rally convert. His instinct to punch back is Trumpian — and his views on foreign policy and the nationalist economic agenda are thoroughly consistent with Trump, if not going even further. While more socially conservative than the former president, he’s also shown his pragmatism in all things when it comes to navigating the current environment. His youth renders him unattached from any of the biases of those with close ties to any past Republican administrations, and his geographic background is meant to appeal to voters in the Midwest.

The negatives for Vance are also well apparent. He’s inexperienced, having run and won just one election, which ended up being more costly than expected and in which he ran far behind other successful Republican candidates. He’s been in the Senate barely long enough to do anything of note, but  with a victory in November, he’ll effectively be viewed as the presidential favorite for 2028. He comes across as extremely ambitious, doubling down on the most aggressive aspects of the Trump Republican agenda, as opposed to an approach designed to appeal directly to Independent voters or make peace with the Nikki Haley faction. It also remains to be seen if Vance’s presence on the national ticket hurts or helps the hopes of incumbent Ohio Democrat senator Sherrod Brown, currently running several points ahead of his Republican challenger.

What the Vance selection indicates more than anything is Trumpian confidence: he believes he is ahead, that he doesn’t need to go outside his lane to make a choice, and that he has the latitude to choose whoever he likes. There’s an inherent risk to such belief. For an election where Democrats will once again put abortion front and center, Vance has not shown grace in navigating the issue. And for an election which could hang on Trump’s appeal to black and Hispanic men, it’s hard to see how Vance is an asset — though it’s not like other potential choices such as Doug Burgum or Glenn Youngkin would’ve helped there, either.

So after promising us a vice presidential Apprentice selection process — even with the collapse of Joe Biden in a debate, and the attempted assassination just this weekend — victory went to the favorite all along. The adage is that veep choices rarely help but sometimes hurt the nominee. Trump thinks he’s headed for victory, so he can pick whoever he likes most — in this case, a combative loyal warrior for his 2024 effort.