Mélenchon’s leftist coalition heads for shock victory in France

In a sensational result that not even Jean-Luc Mélenchon himself could have imagined, his Nouveau Front Populaire looks set to come first in the French elections. Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble Party is forecast to be second — forcing Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN), which led the first round, into third place. Mass tactical voting to stop the RN seems to have worked, leading to a hung parliament. Macron must now negotiate with parties to try to form a coalition government.

“The will of the people must be strictly respected,” declared Mélenchon. “The defeat of the president and his coalition is clearly confirmed. The president must bow down and accept his defeat. The prime minister must leave. The president must call on the Nouveau Front Populaire to govern.” He also made it clear that there would be compromises, and that the program of the NFP — formed less than three weeks ago by the main left-wing parties — would be implemented in its entirety. Gabriel Attal, the current prime minister, has indeed announced tonight that he shall tender his resignation to Macron tomorrow.

Jordan Bardella, who had been favorite to be prime minister had RN won a majority, deplored the tactical voting as “alliances of dishonor” accompanied by a “disinformation campaign.” “But we have doubled the number of our lawmakers, in the first steps towards a victory tomorrow,” he said, referring to the 2027 presidential election.

There were tactical voting pacts between centrist and left-wing parties in some 200 seats. This is a revival of the tactics used to stop Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, when he faced Jacques Chirac in the 2002 presidential elections. On the highest turnout for forty years, the left-wing bloc is forecast to take between 180 and 205 seats in the National Assembly with Macron’s party 165 to 175 seats and RN between 130 and 145 seats. 

The NFP campaigned on a pledge to roll back many of Macron’s reforms. It wants to lower the retirement age to sixty, bring back the old wealth tax, increase housing benefits and increase the minimum wage. Economists warned before the election that both the economic programs of the NFP and the Rassemblement National would be “catastrophic” for the country. The NFP’s agenda has been costed at €100 billion ($108 billion) next year rising to €150 billion ($162 billion) in 2027. The left also intends to release up to 16,000 inmates from prisons, fast-track migrants categorized as “climate refugees” and restrict some police practices it considers too robust.

Other figures in the left-wing coalition quickly followed Mélenchon in addressing the media — more moderate figures such as Olivier Faure of the Socialist Party and Marine Tondelier, the head of the Greens. But Mélenchon has made no secret of his desire to be prime minister — as Marine Le Pen warned last week, in any coalition it is always the most fanatical who triumphs.

For the Rassemblement National and its 10.6 million supporters who voted in last week’s first round there is little comfort in the fact the party will have as many as sixty more MPs in parliament than they did a month ago. In fact, they are now the single biggest party with more seats in parliament than Macron’s Renaissance or Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise. But that means nothing when you have no allies to form coalitions.

This time last week the pundits talked cautiously of the party winning enough seats — 289 — for an absolute majority in parliament. But that was before Macron’s party allied with the left to form the “Front républicain.” Candidates from the left and the center then dropped out of the second round, telling their voters to cast their ballots against the RN in a move known as désistements — tactical withdrawals.

And it works. How democratic it is, is a question for another day. Jordan Bardella tried to put a brave face on the defeat when he addressed the party faithful, but dejection hung in the air. “I would like to thank the voters for the patriotic surge,” said Jordan Bardella. “Unfortunately, tonight the alliances of dishonor are depriving the French people of a policy of recovery,” he said. “This evening, electoral agreements are throwing France into the arms of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s extreme left.”

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.