How Zohran Mamdani will wreck New York

The Friday before New York’s Democratic mayoral primary election, the 33-year-old candidate Zohran Mamdani walked the entire length of the city. ‘We’re outside,’ he told his videographer as they began their trek at Inwood Hill Park, ‘because New Yorkers deserve a mayor they can see, they can hear, they can even yell at!’ Like any good millennial, he documented every step. In his collared shirt and sneakers, he greeted and hugged supporters, who chanted his name.

The celebrating was premature but justified. Four days later, Mamdani won 43.5 per cent of the vote in the first round, defying almost every pollster’s prediction. Within hours, the self-declared ‘democratic socialist’ was the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City. Come November, he’s the favourite to win. But is New York ready for his promised experiment in ‘real socialism’?

It was only eight months ago that the city had one of the biggest electoral swings towards a very different New Yorker – Donald Trump. The President increased his vote share by seven points, reflected by the growing number of red MAGA hats that can be spotted in the city’s trendiest neighbourhoods. Mamdani is in many ways the opposite of Trump: a socialist Muslim immigrant from Uganda who moved to New York City when he was seven years old. But it seems New Yorkers are inclined to give the anti-establishment politicians a try.

Mamdani is promising free buses and free childcare, government-run grocery stores and rent freezes

‘It’s in those very conversations that I had with Democrats who voted for Donald Trump many months ago that I heard what it would take to bring them back to the Democratic party,’ Mamdani said last week, after his big win. ‘It would be a relentless focus on an economic agenda.’

That agenda is full fat socialism. Free buses, free childcare, government-run grocery stores, rent freezes and subsidized house building are the big promises of his campaign so far. The last of these pledges is estimated to cost $100 billion over ten years – and that’s according to Mamdani’s own campaign literature. Of course, Mamdani reckons those costs will be covered once the higher taxes on businesses and the wealthiest New Yorkers kick in.

Trump has already denounced Mamdani on Truth Social as a ‘100 per cent communist lunatic,’ yet both Trump and Mamdani have successfully tapped into the concerns that voters have about the cost-of-living crisis. New York City rent rose seven times faster than wages in 2023 – an unsustainable phenomenon in a city where nearly 70 per cent of residents rent. Never mind that Mamdani’s solution to freeze rents will worsen the problem, by reducing the number of properties on the market. The promise that landlords and billionaires will cough up the cash was enough to pull the city’s Democratic base to the left. The hope and promise of a subsidized tomorrow secured his nomination today.

Speaking of New York’s billionaires (of whom Mamdani said this week: ‘I don’t think we should have them’) it’s not obvious they are ready to put up a fight for capitalism. Tyler Winklevoss – of Facebook fame and Bitcoin wealth – said on X last week that he was ‘torn and undecided’ about backing anyone against Mamdani. ‘The Zoomers and millennials need a refresher on the outcome of Marxism and socialism,’ he wrote.

Perhaps he’s learnt from Elon Musk’s botched experiment with politics: spend millions, get burned. But he may well be looking at the voter breakdown in the Democratic primary, where it was the young and affluent who propelled Mamdani into the lead. New York’s glitterati came out strong for him. Cynthia Nixon (Miranda in Sex and the City), Emily Ratajkowski (a supermodel turned socialist), and Lola Tung (who stars in a teen drama as fantastical as socialism itself) are just a few celebrities who have given their endorsement.

While Mamdani ran away with the vote among ‘higher income residents’ and college graduates, ‘lower income residents’ and black voters swung to his opponent, the former New York governor Andrew Cuomo. It is fun to think of Mamdani’s rich and famous backers discovering there are no sourdough starter packs at the state-run checkout counter. But what happens to the more vulnerable voters in this experiment, the ones who know instinctively that nothing comes for free?

Is Mamdani’s great upset the result of an extraordinary campaign or an easy ride? Perhaps both. Mamdani is optimistic, always on message, and his oratory skills have been generously compared with a young Barack Obama. Countless New Yorkers will have seen one of his 40,000 volunteers who canvassed and leafleted in the weeks leading up to the primary, shouting ‘No more rent hikes’ at passers-by.

His campaign promises to shift the tax burden to ‘richer and whiter neighborhoods’

He will have benefited from the weakness of his main opponent. Cuomo earned the nickname ‘granny-killer’ during the pandemic for his disastrous handling of care homes. He then had to resign in 2021 over 13 accusations of sexual assault. It’s not hard to look good against such a disgraced politico.

But Mamdani has his own issues. He refused to condemn the phrase ‘globalize the intifada’, and still would not do so last weekend after securing the nomination. While he is canny enough to reject the ‘communist’ label, videos have surfaced of him promoting the ‘end goal’ of ‘seizing the means of production’. In another, an off-screen interviewer celebrates Mamdani for embracing the taboos of US politics: socialism, Islam and Palestine. ‘Let’s go, baby!’ he cheers. Meanwhile his campaign promises to shift the tax burden to ‘richer and whiter neighborhoods’. His focus on ‘richer’ computes. Why mention race?

In any serious race for mayor, such curious comments would be brought into the light. Don’t count on it. Cuomo, who struggles to take no for an answer, will be on the ballot as an Independent. This will eat into the votes of the current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who is running for re-election as a Democrat-turned-Independent. Adams is prone to his own gaffes, but bills himself as a law-and-order candidate (in contrast to Mamdani, who believes ‘violence is an artificial construction’). Fox News has been particularly sweet on Adams since Mamdani’s nomination victory, and there are whispers in Republican circles that Adams might be the candidate to back.

It’s telling that Mamdani has not received an endorsement from the Democratic minority leaders in the House or the Senate – not even since becoming the nominee. They know that Mamdani’s socialist messaging would be poison for the party in most parts of the country.

Still, this is New York. And if the New York state of mind turns to socialism, the whole country will suffer from nightmares.