Trump has been outmaneuvered by Netanyahu

The surprising thing isn’t that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Iran. It’s that the current bombing campaign didn’t occur sooner. Netanyahu has been inveighing against the Iran threat for decades. The prospect that Trump might be prepared to cut a nuclear deal with the Iranian mullahs finally forced his hand.

Trump, who based much of his MAGA movement around opposition to endless wars in the Middle East, has been outmaneuvered by Bibi. Intent on a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump proclaimed that he would secure an end to the Ukraine war within 24 hours. Then he focused his attentions on Iran. But his impulse to avoid war, any war, in the Middle East has been foiled. 

A gallimaufry of MAGA adherents is aghast at the ease with which Netanyahu sidelined Trump and his chum Steve Witkoff. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scurrying to disclaim any responsibility for the Israeli strike. Currently Trump’s mission is to avoid responsibility for the attack.

But if it proves successful Trump will want to claim credit. He’ll say that he was with Israel all along. Perhaps Trump will even say that he conceived of the plan.

Did Israel kick in a rotting door? Perhaps. It appears to have decapitated the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The audacious Israeli action may lead to the collapse of the sclerotic regime which has faced substantial internal protests over the past decade. 

Another scenario, the one envisaged by Trump’s camp followers is also more than a little plausible. It is that the war against Iran leads to broader turmoil in the region, not to mention far higher oil prices as the Iranian regime shuts down the Persian Gulf. 

The notion that Iran will place much credence in the Trump administration’s pious assertions of remaining aloof from the conflict seems farfetched. 

Iran may well seek to trigger a wider war that enmeshes America. At a minimum the Israeli action will stir up more hostility to America in the Middle East. The question for Trump will be whether he chooses to seek to help protect Israel from Iran. If he chooses not to assist it, he will be pounded by Israel’s supporters – and if he does, he will be pounded by his MAGA base for deserting his cherished foreign policy principles.

Either way, Trump is in a sticky wicket indeed.