Zelensky risks coup or civil war

Kyiv

When is the price of peace ever fair? War does not determine who is right, only who is left, Bertrand Russell wisely observed. Very often conflicts come down to a numbers game – and on the numbers Ukraine is losing. Despite losing more soldiers, Russia is winning on the battlefield and unlike Ukraine hasn’t even begun mass mobilization. 

Donald Trump’s proposed peace deal won’t turn the clock back on Ukraine’s borders, or compensate Ukraine for Russian aggression and war crimes, or even punish Putin personally for starting a horrific and needless war that has claimed as many as 500,000 lives. If anything, the deal rewards him. 

But Trump hopes his proposal will draw a line in the sand to stop the relentless bloodshed.  

That is not a redline that Volodymyr Zelensky appears prepared to sign up to, though. In an urgent address to the nation on Friday night, Zelensky said this was “one of the most difficult moments in our history.” The choice was, “a life without freedom, dignity and justice, while being expected to trust someone who has already attacked us.” The current price of peace, on the terms of the 28-point plan, is too high for him. 

Zelensky is at least engaging with the peace process and will talk with Trump later this week. Yet however tough his talks with Trump are, they will be far easier than the conversations he will have with his own countrymen and within his own parliament. It is hard if not impossible to find a single voice in Ukraine that backs the peace plan in the current form, or even in a diluted form.

A source close to Zelensky, from his ruling Servant of the People party, said the existing plan risks fracturing the country. “It’s a stupid decision. If he doesn’t change it, he will lose the party. 

“Local governments might say this deal is a betrayal, this is not a good deal and we do not recognize it. They could declare themselves as separate entities, while other parts might respect the deal. There will be a lot of violence during the process.”

Others in the parliament agree.  “The lives of the people who live in the areas that we have to give away will be ruined, their culture, their religion, they face torture and deportation to Russia where they will be forced to join the military and fight against Ukraine,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a deputy in the opposition European Solidarity party, told me. “This deal shows that might is right. It will be impossible to ratify.”

Chief among concerns is how the military might react to a bad deal. It is feared that soldiers who have lost friends in hard-fought battles over land they are being told to hand back might take matters into their own hands – and could even be prepared to stage a military coup.

“If Zelensky agrees to this deal or one like it, he’d have to worry about the more nationalistic and patriotic units,” Harry, 27, from the American Midwest, who is serving with the Ukrainian infantry told me. “I’ve served with these guys, they are elite, big dudes full of steroids who love their country. Units like Azov, the 3rd assault, they would take exception. I don’t know how far it would go, but it could be anything from a demonstration to a full coup.”

The displeasure of soldiers and veterans could be expressed in snap elections that the peace plan states must happen within 100 days of an agreement being reached. This would effectively be a referendum on Zelensky and the deal that he has struck. It is at this moment that the entire power dynamics of the country will likely change and could see veterans enter the parliamentary system in a significant way.

The thorniest issue of all is the proposal to surrender land, as yet unconquered by Russia, to Russia. The plan calls for Ukraine to cede the eastern Donbas region and accept Russia’s de facto control of other parts of Ukraine where the frontline would be frozen. In reality, it would mean an evacuation of these areas and be the bitterest of pills for a proud country to swallow.  

A proposed security guarantee might be a marginally easier sell. The US has presented the Ukrainians with a draft agreement of a security guarantee modeled on NATO’s Article 5, which would commit the US and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the “transatlantic community.” If formalized, the agreement would mean that if Russia were to try to repeat its attempted capture of Kyiv in 2022, this time it would be met by the armies of the US and Europe. Under the plan, Ukraine would have to give up aspirations to join NATO, but in reality they would become a de facto member. 

NATO troops would be banned from Ukrainian soil under the plan, but they could be based on the border in Poland, armed to the teeth with modern weapons and war planes and ready to roll at a moment’s notice if Russia attacks Ukraine. An arrangement that will also help to sharpen European militaries that are rusty and reduced since the end of the Cold War. 

And while Ukraine would have to accept a significant reduction in its army from 900,000 to 600,000, most members of society are now military trained – every citizen is supposed to be either in the military or for the military – and, like Israel, could mobilize large numbers of civilians very quickly.    

The negative reaction to the proposal within Ukraine could, of course, just be the first stage of grief and eventually Ukrainians will come to terms with Trump’s offer, or an offer modeled on it. But if they don’t agree to his timeline, Trump has threatened to cut the supply of weapons and intelligence.  

And in typical fashion, he also offered a financial inducement. Ukraine will get $100 billion from frozen Russian assets to help rebuild the shattered country. This will be invested in a joint fund with the US; both will share the profits. Peace is profitable.

The biggest obstacle to this deal progressing any further is not really Zelensky but the people of Ukraine. By and large, they believe that in practice the deal would offer only a temporary ceasefire, and allow Russia to regroup before launching another effort to reunite the Russian Empire. History would tend to agree with them.  

The staunch patriotism of Ukrainians should command the respect of the world. Ukraine is a proud nation that prioritizes nothing more than dignity. There can be defeat, they say, as long as it comes with dignity. This deal is short on dignity; it is fair to say it is dishonorable. But Ukrainians must also be aware that they are losing the war. Are they also going to lose this opportunity to at least explore peace?