Zelensky has finally and fatally misstepped

Seldom in modern times has the fate of a whole nation been so dependent on a single meeting and on a single relationship. When Volodymyr Zelensky entered the Oval Office on Friday he had one job: to repair a deep and catastrophic rift between him and Donald Trump, who the previous week had called the Ukrainian president a “dictator.” Zelensky held the future of US support for his country’s defense against Russia in his hands. 

But instead of a reconciliation, the meeting turned into an epochal diplomatic train wreck. So disastrous was the exchange that by the end Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington Oksana Markarova was holding her head in her hands. A planned joint Trump-Zelensky press conference was cancelled, and as Zelensky drove back to his plane for an early departure, Trump delivered the online equivalent of a kick up his departing guest’s backside with a terse message on Truth Social accusing Zelensky of being “not ready for peace.”

Where did it all go so wrong? First and foremost, Zelensky made the cardinal mistake of disagreeing with Trump and telling him that he was wrong. For instance, when Trump repeated his false claim that the US had provided more money to Ukraine than Europe, Zelensky corrected him three times. Was Zelensky right? Of course. Could Zelensky have been more politic? Also yes. Is it a good thing for the world that major policy decision are apparently being taken on the basis of Trump’s personal likes and dislikes? Probably not. Yet the fast-emerging reality of Washington politics is that government by personal whim is the new normal. 

Zelensky quickly discovered just how thin skinned Trump can be — and how terrible his temper. “The problem is, I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy, and I don’t think you’d be a tough guy without the United States,” a visibly irritated Trump told Zelensky before wrapping up the meeting. “Your people are very brave. But you’re either going to make a deal or we are out.” He also accused Zelensky of “gambling with the lives of millions, you are gambling with World War Three. And what you are doing is very disrespectful to this country.” And his final words to Zelensky were “you’re not acting at all thankful and that’s not a nice thing.”

What is most surprising is that hopes were high that Zelensky would be able to exercise his famous powers of persuasion and turn Trump back into a supporter. On the day before the meeting, Trump was asked about his previous claim that Zelensky was a dictator. “Did I say that?” was Trump’s smirking response. “I can’t believe I said that. Next question?” A major deal that would have seen Ukraine exchange a stake in the country’s mineral resources for continued US financing was on the table, the centerpiece of a new phase in Kyiv-Washington relations. Crucially, the US had removed a controversial demand that it was owed $500 billion in exchange for the military aid provided during the war. 

“I do deals. My whole life is deals,” Trump said of the accord on Ukraine’s minerals earlier this week. “We’re going to be signing an agreement, which will be a very big agreement.” Transactional it may have been, but the minerals deal would at least have helped attract billions of US investment in Ukraine’s shattered mining sector and given Washington a material stake in Kyiv’s future stability and independence. 

The first sign that the Trump-Zelensky meeting could go badly wrong came just seconds after their initial handshake, as Trump teased Zelensky’s trademark military clothes. “Oh look, you’re all dressed up!” said Trump sarcastically. “He’s all dressed up today!”  But the more substantive disagreement came over whether Vladimir Putin could be trusted. “I think once this [peace] deal gets done, it’s over,” said Trump. “Russia is not going to want to go back, and nobody’s going to want to go back.” Zelensky objected that Putin had broken ceasefires and agreements with other countries 25 times, and flatly announced that “we will never accept just a ceasefire” and insisted that no peace deal would work “without security guarantees” from the US. 

Reasonable points, doubtless. But reason is not among the primary currencies of the Trump White House. Zelensky, who has for three years achieved regular diplomatic miracles in persuading, cajoling and inspiring western leaders and electorates to give billions in aid, has finally and fatally misstepped. He may have right on his side. But when it comes to dealing with Trump the only formula for success is — as demonstrated over the last few days by both Emmanuel Macron and Sir Keir Starmer — apparently flattery and abject agreement. Zelensky perhaps went into the meeting intending to play that very game. But Trump’s proposals to trust Putin’s word, force Ukraine to pay back aid money and accept whatever peace deal Washington chose to strike, proved too much for Zelensky to bear. The result was righteous indignation — and a collapse in relations. But the price will be paid by ordinary Ukrainians who face the prospect of fighting on without the support of their wealthiest and most powerful sometime ally.