Will Putin go along with the US ceasefire proposal?

After Ukraine accepted America’s 30-day ceasefire proposal, all eyes are on Russia’s reaction. Will Vladimir Putin — who, as President Trump has incredulously claimed, has all the cards, and at the same time no cards at all — go along with the US proposal, or choose to snub it?

To answer this question, it is important to understand what Putin is trying to do. On the one hand, he did not spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this war, sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives, and put Russia’s entire economy on a war footing in order to claim a devastated strip of territory in eastern Donbas. Putin wants to reassert effective control over Ukraine, something he can claim as his life’s work and his legacy for Russia.

On the other hand, Putin values the promise of a better Russian-American relationship. He wants the United States to lift its extensive economic sanctions on Russia, and hopes to exploit the emerging rift between Washington and its European allies and partners to weaken, roll back, or altogether cripple Nato.

These two priorities appear to be contradictory. Turning down the ceasefire deal could anger and humiliate Trump, and so potentially recommit him to Ukraine’s cause. This would not be in Russia’s interest. It would almost certainly torpedo the shiny promise of a Russian-American entente, and possibly trigger new sanctions on Russia at a time when the country is already facing dire economic challenges.

But agreeing to a ceasefire when the Russians are making steady gains is risky too. Putin highlighted this risk when he claimed last December that a simple ceasefire would allow the Ukrainians breathing space just as they are nearing “exhaustion.” The Ukrainians would be able to dig in, resupply their positions and secure more external support. They could then more effectively resist Russia’s aggression, and even claw back some of the territories they have lost.

Putin will have a few days before he has to commit one way or another. He will use this time to intensify pressure on Ukrainian troops in the Russian region of Kursk, routing the Ukrainians who are already in retreat. A victory in Kursk will strengthen Putin’s hand in possible future negotiations with the Ukrainians, depriving Zelensky of the one questionable card that he had hoped to play to secure reciprocal Russian withdrawals from Ukrainian territory.

Still, Putin will probably accept the ceasefire proposal as a goodwill gesture — after all, has he not repeatedly claimed that Russia is prepared to negotiate? — and then press his demands. We have a fair idea of what these are likely to be from the ill-fated Istanbul negotiations: Ukraine’s neutrality (backed by ineffective guarantees), its demilitarization (which would leave Kyiv at Russia’s mercy), the acceptance of “realities” (i.e. the loss of territory), and the repeal of laws that constrain Russia’s propaganda and political influence in Ukraine.

The Russian president will want Trump to arm-twist President Zelensky to agree to these humiliating conditions. And if Zelensky stands firm, Putin could then pin the failure of the peace talks on the recalcitrant Ukrainians and restart the fighting, hoping that by then Kyiv’s morale would have been sufficiently undermined to allow a swift collapse of the frontline.

In this scenario, Putin could have his cake and eat it too. President Trump, who is already inclined to see Zelensky as an obstacle to peace, could well buy into Putin’s point of view, and pull the plug on Ukraine, this time finally and irrevocably.

Putin is a skillful strategist. He surely appreciates Carl von Clausewitz’s famous dictum that war is but politics by another means. And so, he will press on until he feels that he has met his objectives, especially if the other side — frustrated, anxious, inconsistent, and all too eager for quick solutions to intractable problems — gives Putin an opening to win through negotiations what he has failed to take by military force.