Will North Korean soldiers become Putin’s cannon fodder?

Hermit kingdoms usually keep themselves to themselves, but now, North Korea is reinventing the moniker by which it has long been known. The country may have the world’s fourth largest military, numbering nearly 1.5 million — out of a population of twenty-six million — but when the first tanks invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, few observers would have anticipated North Korea’s actual involvement in the ensuing war. It is not only Ukrainian intelligence reports which, this week, raised the possibility that over 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to aid Russia’s war effort. Only a few hours ago, South Korea’s intelligence agency has confirmed this grim reality — troops have now arrived. 

Moscow will do all it can to prolong its now-global war

While this week’s early reports from Ukraine were unconfirmed by the United States and South Korea, it was only a matter of time before that speculation would become truth. Over the past year, as Putin’s reliance upon millions of rounds of far-from-high-quality North Korean 122mm and 152mm artillery shells has grown, North Korea has also broadened what it has supplied its Cold War patron. Beyond artillery shells, Pyongyang soon provided its most infamous weapon to Russia, ballistic missiles, debris from which was found in Kharkiv, amongst other regions, earlier this year.

Russia’s obstinacy towards continuing the war, coupled with North Korea’s desire for financial and technological assistance (and for food) has allowed relations between the two pariah states to reach a whole new level. Now, the deployment of humans to fight in Ukraine highlights just how far the partnership has escalated. Concerningly, there is little to suggest that Russia will view North Korean people any differently to their missiles or artillery. 

But just what will these North Korean soldiers do? For a start, they could act as a vital boost of manpower in the form of troops in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, two Russian-controlled territories recognized only by Russia, Syria, and, you guessed it, North Korea. Yet, the possibility of North Korea sending civilian personnel is another, more likely outcome, not least engineers and weapons technicians. Given the lack of accuracy of North Korean weapons — conventional and missile-related — the need for those well-versed in using this technology is vital not only for Russia but also for North Korea. With Kim Jong-un making clear how North Korea now sees South Korea as a “hostile foreign enemy,” Pyongyang will not say no to giving its troops the opportunity to take part in an anti-western war. 

All of this is in wanton violation of sanctions, not least United Nations Security Council sanctions imposed in 2017, which specifically called for the return of overseas North Korean laborers back to their homeland. Back then, Russia and China supported the imposition of these sanctions, but expectedly, rhetoric did not match reality. It is not just China that continues to abet North Korea’s evasion of unilateral and multilateral sanctions through clandestine ship-to-ship transfer of oil; so too, does Russia, which, as of March this year, is providing a direct supply of oil to the North. Indeed, it is no surprise that the two countries with the largest number of North Korean workers remain Russia and China. More than 120,000 remain in both states, across a variety of fields, and offer a key source of income for the ruling Kim regime. One of the many lessons that the Ukraine war has taught us is that neither Russia nor North Korea care about the international reputation of violating sanctions. As Kim Jong-un infamously said in 2019, in a statement to the North Korean population, North Korea must learn to live with sanctions. Five years on, and the possibility of any multilateral sanctions even being imposed remains an exceptionally distant possibility. 

One additional benefit that Moscow provides Pyongyang is unwavering UN Security Council support. Ukraine, and not North Korea, is certainly a far more urgent and proximate foreign policy concern for Russia. Nonetheless, in return for North Korea’s “unwavering support” for all of Russia’s policies — as Kim Jong-un boldly asserted in the aftermath of the “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” signed between Kim and Putin in June — North Korea is now guaranteed a complimentary “get out of jail free” card, to escape from any punishment from the growing litany of sanctions-violating actions that Pyongyang continues to commit.

Moscow will do all it can to prolong its now-global war. Now, more so than ever, South Korea’s own interests at stake. It had been hesitant to supply lethal assistance to Ukraine, but now we are arguably in a whole new world now. At a time when Russia, North Korea, China and Iran are attempting to forge a new, anti-western coalition, the United Kingdom should strive to uphold our values — and this means not kowtowing to China. David Lammy would do well to take note. He may hear these calls, but I doubt he will listen.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.