Will the ceasefire hold?

The ceasefire in Gaza, scheduled to begin this morning, has been anything but straightforward. As the agreement unfolds, many have rushed to declare who are the winners and who are the losers. Yet victory does not lie with those who made the most military gains or acted most morally — it leans, perversely, towards those ruthless enough to exploit suffering without moral restraint. In this grim theatre of war the truth is far bleaker, that among the civilized, there can only be losers.

After days of fraught negotiations, delays, and brinkmanship, the first steps of this tenuous agreement are now unfolding. The plan, as presented, is stark in its simplicity and devastating in its implications: Hamas will release a small number of abductees in stages in exchange for Israel freeing hundreds of convicted Palestinian terrorists from its prisons. Yet even as the first phase takes shape, the events of the past 24 hours have underscored just how fragile this deal is — and how easily it could collapse.

The agreement itself had already sparked fierce debate within Israel, but by early morning, the deal’s implementation was already in jeopardy. According to the terms, Hamas was to provide Israel with the list of hostages scheduled for release in each batch, 24 hours beforehand. When no such list arrived by the deadline, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a late-night security meeting. Hours later, as dawn broke, Netanyahu instructed the IDF to delay the ceasefire until the list was received, a move reflecting both his skepticism about Hamas’ intentions and the precariousness of the arrangement.

It wasn’t until just before 9 a.m. UK time that Hamas finally submitted the names. Among them was British-Israeli Emily Damari, whose mother had campaigned relentlessly for her release. This last-minute submission, hours behind schedule, typifies the challenges of negotiating with Hamas, an organization that has repeatedly exploited its control over hostages to manipulate both timelines and Israeli public sentiment. For Netanyahu and his government, this delay was a grim reminder of past experiences, when Hamas failed to provide the agreed lists. This ultimately ended the previous agreement completely. Their decision to start this deal as they ended the last is therefore highly symbolic of the manipulation Hamas will doubtless undertake throughout the coming days. 

By the time the ceasefire officially began at 11.15 a.m. local time, Hamas, had shown it was emboldened by the leverage it holds and uniformed terrorists paraded and drove in a convoy of white trucks through the Gaza Strip, with Palestinian civilians ululating and cheering them on. Each manipulation chips away at the already tenuous trust between the sides, raising questions about whether the full deal — structured in phases — can ever be fully implemented.

The stakes could not be higher. For the families of the abductees, the release of even a single name brings both hope and heartbreak. These are innocents taken during the October 7 attack, which left Israel reeling from its worst loss of life in decades. Over 470 days in captivity, these individuals have endured unimaginable suffering, and their families have lived in limbo, oscillating between despair and the faintest hope of reunion.

But the cost of their release is staggering. Among the Palestinian prisoners being freed are individuals convicted of some of the deadliest terror attacks in Israeli history. The list includes Ahmed Barghouti, serving 13 life sentences for orchestrating bombings that killed 12 Israelis, and members of the Silwan Cell, responsible for attacks that claimed dozens of lives. Each name carries a story of loss, a victim whose family will now watch the perpetrator walk free.

The emotional and moral dilemmas this deal presents are overwhelming. For many Israelis, it is a choice between competing tragedies: the suffering of the abductees and their families versus the potential future harm posed by released terrorists. The recidivism rate for such individuals from previous deals is alarmingly high — over 80 percent — raising fears that this exchange will sow the seeds for future bloodshed.

The mechanics of the deal reveal its inherent instability. Each phase of the exchange is predicated on both sides adhering to the agreed terms, yet history shows that Hamas thrives on undermining such arrangements. Even today, the last-minute submission of the list highlights how easily the process can be derailed. This is no straightforward negotiation between equal parties; it is a lopsided calculus dictated by Hamas’ ruthless exploitation of human lives as bargaining chips. It is blackmail. 

The fragility of the ceasefire is underscored by the broader context of the conflict. For Hamas, the release of convicted terrorists is not just a tactical victory but a propaganda coup, bolstering its image among supporters. The footage released today from Gaza of Hamas fighters in uniform mingling with jubilant civilians is a stark contrast to the grief and anguish felt across Israel. This visual juxtaposition encapsulates the broader imbalance: Hamas celebrates despite Palestinian suffering and loss, while Israel grapples with the impossible moral and strategic costs of the deal.

Even as all this was going on, Israel succeeded in recovering the remains of Oron Shaul, an IDF soldier who was killed in battle during Operation Protective Edge in 2014 and whose body had been held ransom by Hamas in Gaza for over a decade. This achievement, unrelated to the current hostage deal, reflects Israel’s continued efforts to bring back its fallen soldiers even amidst the chaos of ongoing negotiations. For his mother, Zehava Shaul, the moment brought a measure of relief after years of unbearable uncertainty. “I didn’t believe I would reach this moment,” she said.

As the first hostages are expected to be handed over this afternoon, attention will shift to their physical and psychological recovery. Many of the abductees will return permanently scarred — physically, emotionally, and spiritually — from their time in captivity. Some may not yet know of the fates of their loved ones, killed on the day they were taken or since. Their return, while a cause for celebration, will also serve as a sobering reminder of the costs Israel has borne to secure their freedom.

Ultimately, the question remains: can the ceasefire hold? As of now, it is too soon to tell. What is clear, however, is that every step of this process is fraught with tension, uncertainty, and the ever-present possibility of collapse. For Israel, this deal is a painful compromise, one that tests the nation’s resolve, unity, and moral foundation.

In the days to come, as more names are exchanged and the fragile machinery of the agreement is tested, the world will witness the profound dilemmas faced by an ethical democratic nation striving to balance its humanity with its security. Furthermore, all Muslim Arab terrorist organizations, not just Hamas, will observe these events and recognize that the resolve of Western states to avoid negotiating with terrorists can be broken if the stakes and the human cost are raised high enough. This will inevitably incentivize more hostage-taking and escalate the level of brutality, torture, and atrocities inflicted on captives. As a result, this is not merely a loss for Israel — it is a setback for the entire world. Whether the ceasefire endures or unravels, one truth is inescapable: there are no winners here, only varying degrees of loss.