Will a Republican be the next New Jersey governor?

The national spotlight is on New Jersey as the long-blue state’s gubernatorial race narrows, but it wouldn’t be Juh-zey without a little last minute drama. Lying, suing and a last minute showing from Donald Trump – this race has just about everything. 

And the Republican may actually win. 

Democrat Mikie Sherrill has been the conventional favorite throughout the race. She’s a relatively fresh face, despite being a four-term U.S. Congresswoman, and she checks all the boxes: Navy veteran, Georgetown Law, and a respectable patina of moderation to go with the Girl Boss pantsuit. Still, the VoteView database shows her holding the party lines 95 percent of the time in Congress. 

Republican Jack Ciattarelli, meanwhile, might be more of a household name after his bombastic burnout in the Jersey’s 2021 gubernatorial race. With slick-backed hair, a goombah accent, and a questionable business history, say what you want about the guy, but he’s very Jersey. He might not have the made-in-a-lab appeal of Sherrill, but there’s no reason he can’t pull off the W in his home turf. 

In 2021, Ciattarelli lost by only three points to incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, a time when Democrats had an iron grip on the narrative and cancel culture reigned. But vibes, as we’ve seen, have shifted. 

There’s limited polling on governors’ races – just five in Jersey over the past month – but the race is narrowing. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows just a six-point spread, with Sherrill failing to break a majority.

Ciattarelli has a greater edge in enthusiasm, however, which in the age of populism is really all that counts. In the same poll, 55 percent of Ciattarelli voters said they are “very enthusiastic” compared to just 42 percent for Sherrill. On things as mundane as the issues affecting New Jerseyans, the two aren’t far off. But if the enthusiasm gap holds, and Jersey Democrats simply shrug their shoulders on election day, it’s quite clear which way this race is going. 

So it’s no surprise that things have gotten increasingly ugly. In what The New York Times wishfully called an “explosive” shake up, Sherrill accused her opponent of “kill[ing] tens of thousands of people in New Jersey, including children.” A medical company Ciattarelli once owned spread “misinformation” and “propaganda” about opiate addiction, she claimed, adding he was “paid to develop an app so that people could more easily get the opioids once they were addicted.” But even The Times couldn’t dig up proof. 

“It’s a lie,” Ciattarelli responded, threatening defamation charges. This is the third time he has threatened to sue over unrelated issues, but has yet to follow through – likely because the implications for campaign spending would create a legal minefield. 

But a political minefield has never stopped Trump. Trump and Ciattarrelli notoriously kept their distance in the 2021 race; Trump was at the nadir of his political prestige, and Ciattarreli cautiously refused to seek an endorsement. While it’s uncommon for Trump to forget such “disloyalty,” the bromance is apparently back on. 

Ciattarrelli has leaned into the Trump aesthetic in a last minute blitz through the state, holding a rally in Wildwood with a slew of MAGA influencers. There are several more stops to come. And he’s even ready to admit that Trump has “been right about everything.”

That’s enough for Trump, who gave a full-throated endorsement: ”Jack has gone ALL IN, and is now 100 percent (PLUS!)”

We’ll soon get an updated sense of the vibe shift we all can’t seem to stop talking about. 

Jersey’s last Republican governor was Chris Christie, now most famous for hating Trump, and the state hasn’t gone red in a presidential race since 1988. But the once bright blue state now seems up open to whichever party can find the right message. 

Are the state’s affluent suburbanites, who often commute to New York or Philadelphia, and its own urban centers lost forever to the grips of the Democratic machine? Will a faceless suit always play well as long as they say Republicans are scary and mean?

Or will the Trump effect finally see mass appeal? Perhaps Trump will finally help turnout voters even when he’s not on the ballot, a claim he’s often made but has proven questionable at best. 

Only time will tell, and it will implicate both parties’ strategies in the midterms and beyond. Clearly, both parties know there’s more at stake here than just New Jersey.