Why Ukraine is bracing itself for Trump’s return

“Donald Trump is like the light at the end of the tunnel,” an American told me last night at the only Washington D.C. bar throwing a pro-Trump election party. For many Ukrainians, though, he’s more like the end itself.

Trump has called himself “good friends” with Vladimir Putin. He said “Ukraine no longer exists” and that “even the worst deal [with Russia] would be better than what is now.” Ukrainians got the hint and hoped for a Kamala Harris’s victory. But Americans have chosen, and now Kyiv will bend over backwards, trying to convince its biggest military backer not to abandon Ukraine. 

Volodymyr Zelensky was one of the first leaders to congratulate Trump this morning. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” he said. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer.” Over the summer, Zelensky signaled he was ready to negotiate with Russia — but only if Ukraine entered the talks with a strong hand. Trump had once blamed the Ukrainian president for refusing to negotiate with Putin; now the tables have turned: it’s Putin who doesn’t want to stop the fighting. Zelensky hopes Trump will respond by sending more military aid to Ukraine. 

In his victory speech last night, Trump declared he will “stop wars” around the world: “They said ‘he will start a war.’ I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop the wars,” he claimed. Vladimir Putin, who is currently winning, sees only one end to it: if the new US president halts all aid to Ukraine. Putin, as well as other Russian officials, has reportedly congratulated Trump on his victory through acquaintances, as officially America remains an unfriendly state. But even Moscow does not take Trump’s promises to end the war “in 24 hours” seriously. “How will he do it? By threatening Putin? Zelensky? There’s only one way to end the war quickly — to cut off aid to Ukraine abruptly,” said the source in the Russian parliament. 

There is no reason for Putin to enter talks soon. Last month, Russian troops captured 185 square miles of Ukraine’s land and now hold almost 70 percent of the Donetsk region. The Kremlin will throw more people into the meat grinder to speed up the gains before Trump enters the office in late January. “The objectives of the Special Military Operation remain unchanged and will be achieved,” said Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president. Putin’s peace terms are for Ukraine to remain neutral and cede four regions that Russia partly occupies (plus Crimea), including major cities like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia still under Ukrainian control. Zelensky can no longer use the small territory he holds in Russia’s Kursk as a bargaining chip: Russian troops have recaptured half of it, and fresh North Korean reinforcements will likely push Ukrainians to retreat.

Russia’s “peace” demands go much further. This week, Radio Free Europe revealed the peace terms Moscow proposed to Kyiv in March 2022. The Ukrainian army would be reduced to just 50,000 troops, while Russia would limit the quantity of Ukraine’s armor and restrict missile development. Later drafts, from the final stages of the failed peace talks in April 2022, show that Russia also insisted on a veto over any international response to future attacks on Ukraine. This would leave Ukraine with no means to defend itself from the future invasion.

Trump may reject most of Putin’s demands and insist on the ceasefire along the 700-mile-long battle line instead. But there’s no stalemate to make such a deal possible: the frontline is collapsing, and Russian troops are advancing towards the West.

Today, Ukraine’s primary headache is not even Trump. Kyiv must find a way to halt the Russian offensive and stabilize the frontline now. So far, the US has delivered just 10 percent of the $61 billion (£50 billion) aid package that was approved by Congress in April, according to Zelensky. Joe Biden has less than three months to send the rest for what may be Ukraine’s last chance to turn the tide.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.