Why Putin isn’t worried about Trump’s sanctions threat

While Donald Trump may be threatening Moscow with major new sanctions, as it continues to hammer Ukraine with drones and missiles, the Russians seem unfazed. They assume this is just rhetorical for now – and they are probably right.

This week has seen the US progressively cutting off its support for Ukraine, first suspending arms shipments, then pausing intelligence sharing and even access to the satellite imagery used to help target Russian bases and arms depots far from the frontline.

The Russians, far from resting on their laurels, have responded with an escalated campaign of drone and missile strikes – which the Ukrainians find harder to detect and intercept thanks to the US move – as well as further advances intended to cut off the Kursk salient.

In response, Trump responded with an uncharacteristic threat to Russia on his social media platform:

Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!

The response from Moscow was unimpressed. Maria Zakharova, the foreign ministry’s acerbic spokeswoman, said that this reflected a recognition that ‘the truth is, Ukraine has lost, because they trusted and relied on the previous White House. In terms of new sanctions, we have faced so many sanctions already and they have not stopped from realizing our goals.’

Likewise, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the government did ‘not see any particular new elements here.’ Instead, he simply reiterated that ‘Russia is ready for an equal and careful dialogue with the United States, which we had during Trump’s first term.’

Why such a low-key approach, when in the past Moscow has responded with belligerent fury to threats of further sanctions? There are three main reasons.

The first is that, however much the Russians are delighted – even astonished – by how convenient Trump’s recent initiatives have been from their point of view, they have not surrendered to the view, so widespread in liberal Western circles, that he is their man, bought and paid for. As former general and now influential parliamentarian Andrei Kartapolov warned this week, ‘Trump is not our friend.’

Russia has its interests, and Trump and the USA their own, and while at present they seem aligned, this will inevitably change.

After all, the second reason is that they are aware that Trump treats Russia and Ukraine so differently, not just because of his undoubted and inexplicable esteem for Vladimir Putin, but also because he sees the two countries as very different.

Russia is the opposite interlocutor, who needs to be lured to the negotiating table before it is time for serious pressure. Ukraine, though, he seems to consider an ungrateful vassal, which needs to be shown who is boss. The public upbraiding of Volodymyr Zelensky, the suspension of support, the regular warnings that it ‘doesn’t have the cards,’ these are all about turning the screw. For now, unless they directly seem to ‘disrespect’ this most thin-skinned of presidents – and he has already made it clear that these attacks do not count, as he astonishingly dismissed them as ‘what anybody would do’ in the circumstances – they feel safe enough.

Finally, there is also a sense in Moscow – rightly or wrongly – that there is little to fear from new sanctions. After three years of personal and sectoral measures, the real struggle for the West is to identify and close loopholes that the Russians exploit, only for them to find new ones. Considering the self-harming nature of so many of the tariffs he has already imposed, this might be an unwise assumption, but one Moscow-based economist close to the Kremlin suggested that ‘the only new measures that the West could impose that would make a serious difference would also be so damaging to them that they would not dare use them.’ It is worth noting that the Russian business press has largely ignored Trump’s sanctions threat.

The Kremlin’s position is therefore a blend of caution and complacency. They do not believe that their relationship with Trump will necessarily never sour, but for now they believe he is more interested in prosecuting a personal vendetta with Zelensky and breaking Ukraine’s government to his will than targeting Russia. They also assume his threats are simply rhetorical, not least as he tries to reassure those elements of his base unhappy with what seems a dramatic swing towards Moscow. Of course, everyone who thinks they know quite what Trump is thinking today, and will do tomorrow, risks being dangerously wrong.