Trump’s birthday surprise – war with Iran?

The Trump presidency is giving us all a type of news-related diabetes. So much sensational information is spewing out of our screens all the time. There are so many stories, so much richness and history and irony, and so much silliness and seriousness entwined. We are dangerously overfed and now the lines of reality are blurring and people feel mad and sick.

The Trump-Musk saga goes on, as Elon telephones Donald and shows his contrition on X. Trump sends in troops to control anti-ICE protests. Trump attends Les Miserables at his increasingly camp Kennedy Center. And then, of course, there’s the US army’s 250th birthday celebrations on Saturday – which also happens to be Trump’s 79th birthday – while the streets of Washington, DC are being reinforced to cope with all the military machinery. And that’s just this week.

Will the great display make Americans feel safe? We shall see. It’s also possible that the martial jamboree will coincide with a new war in the Middle East as – surprise! – Israeli jets attack Iran.

US-Iran negotiations appear to have broken down in recent days. Yesterday, the news broke that the State Department has initiated the evacuation of some of its personnel from Iraq, in anticipation of retaliatory actions from Iran. The Pentagon is also authorizing military families to exit the region. “Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our mission in Iraq,” says Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump, wearing his tuxedo for the big, beautiful show at the Kennedy Center last night, told reporters that Iran “could be a dangerous place… We’ve given notice to move out; we’ll see what happens.” Team Trump and its envoy, Steve Witkoff, are still in dialogue with Iranian officials, but for now there seems to be no room for an agreement on Iran’s nuclear enrichment. The Iranian military has reportedly been running through its counter-strike options following an Israeli attack. That could include thousands of missile strikes on Israeli/US targets across the region. “We are ready,” declared the official Islamic Republic of Iran’s X account yesterday, ominously.

Other regional powers, such as Qatar, say that the Israeli attacks on Iran could cause drought and chaos throughout the region. Washington hawks have become increasingly confident that Iran is a “paper tiger,” which will fold under serious pressure. But most analysts agree that any move by Israel to take out Iran’s nuclear program could have dramatic and extremely grave escalatory consequences. So happy birthday, Mr. President and the US army. How about another Middle East war?

The above is taken from Freddy Gray’s weekly Americano newsletter. To subscribe click here.