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In the early hours of this morning, Donald Trump must have been thinking that, compared to passing legislation through Congress, Middle Eastern diplomacy was a doddle. “FOR REPUBLICANS THIS SHOULD BE AN EASY YES VOTE!” he Truth-Socialled at about 1 a.m., as a small band of conservative rebels threatened to block the passage of his big, beautiful bill in the House of Representatives. “RIDICULOUS!!”
Trump desperately wants to celebrate Independence Day at the White House tomorrow with a flamboyant signing ceremony for his domestic spending mega-bill. It would mark, in his mind, another week of winning bigly.
Of course, the rule of Republican politics in the 2020s is simple: what Donald wants, Donald gets. The White House messaging is also clear: the big, beautiful bill means less tax for middle-class Americans, more border and national security, a US energy revolution, plus countless other benefits.
For reluctant Republicans and Elon Musk, however, it’s more “dessert now, spinach later” budgeting. By refusing to make the deep and painful cuts to government spending that America urgently needs, the Trump administration is adding trillions to an already unsustainable national debt without any agenda for fiscal sanity in the future.
Early this morning, Grand Old Party rebels threatened to spoil Trump’s 4th July festivities. The bill failed a test vote, which threatened to delay or even return the bill back to the Senate with yet more amendments and complications. Hence Trump’s exasperation.
Then, after some urgent, late haggling from House Speaker Mike Johnson, four of the five Republicans who’d said no suddenly said yes, and the bill was back on track (advancing with 219 votes to 213). Crucially, Thomas Massie, the most prominent critic of the bill in the House of Representatives, switched from nay to yay.
With such a wafer-thin majorities, the legislation is by no means safe. But with the final vote now fast approaching, Speaker Johnson appears to believe that he’s about to, as he puts it, “land this plane.” Bleary eyed, at about 1.30 a.m., he declared: “It will have all been worth it in the end. And we will meet our July 4 deadline, which everybody mocked when I said it.” Oh, Donald will be pleased.
If the bill does pass today or early tomorrow, the Democrats who unanimously opposed it will have to accept yet another Trump victory. But they might not be as deflated as some would have you believe. Polls suggest the big, beautiful bill is very unpopular. And, while Trump may have been able to cajole and bully his party into accepting his spending agenda, senior Democrats believe voters will punish the Republican party for this legislation in next year’s mid-terms. Democrats are going to spend the next few months endlessly repeating that Trump gave a tax cut to the rich while stripping away Medicaid, food stamps, and other benefits for the less fortunate. And if the bill does indeed add trillions more to the national debt, it could end up triggering budget sequestration – the automatic, across-the-board spending cuts which are meant to be implemented when the government fails to control spending. It could mean a further $500 billion of cuts to Medicaid, among other programs, which would cause consternation among the electorate. Even if sequestration is avoided, the Republicans may find they have to resolve even more difficult internal squabbles over budgeting in the coming months.
Team Trump hopes that the magic of economic growth, plus gazillions in external revenue from his controversial tariffs, will wash away all concerns. But that’s a very big bet in an economy still reeling from the aftershocks of Covid and dramatic inflation. Trump may feel triumphant tomorrow – and his legislative victory should taste sweet. But come November next year, his party may have to swallow some political spinach.
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