It’s the cost of living, stupid

Earlier this month, the Republicans lost their first set of elections after Donald Trump’s victory last year, proving once again that without Trump, the GOP is cooked. Because yes – it really is all about him. Are you a narcissist if the world actually does revolve around you? Or are you just right? The problem for the GOP is that they need Trump to win, but Trump loves watching them lose without him. OK, maybe he is a narcissist.

What’s clear is that the 2024 election was not the final boss. It didn’t destroy wokeism. You have to picture the spider in The Lord of the Rings, Shelob, crawling back into her cave after being stabbed by Samwise. Is she injured? Yes. Dead? No. She will probably be back to kill you.

Republicans and pundits and podcasters will come up with all sorts of reasons for the latest losses (including blaming the Jews), but it comes down to fundamentals. Ground game. Optics. And of course, “It’s the economy, stupid!”

The GOP has no ground game in part because it depends on cultural momentum, in part because many of the biggest voices in conservatism right now are more concerned with grabbing market share in the attention economy than they are about winning elections. All of this underlines the tragic loss of Charlie Kirk. It appears Charlie really was the glue holding the entire conservative movement together. He was phenomenal at mobilizing and organizing Republican “get out the vote” efforts.

Charlie knew that politics was about changing hearts and minds. He also understood that the only way to win an election is to do the hard work and compete on the ground. Knock on doors. Register people to vote. Encourage them to get to the polls or mail in their ballot.

Zohran Mamdani won in New York because he focused on fundamentals. He ran a great ground game. He came up with creative ways to engage voters. He knocked on doors. He relentlessly spoke to the anxiety people feel about the cost of living.

It appears Trump may have overestimated his mandate, his popularity and just how far the average American is willing to go to correct some of the problems we face, such as immigration.

Americans are happy with the borders being secured. But the Trump administration’s attempt to bring back deterrence by turning ICE into a dystopian reality show is wildly unpopular with independents. I don’t think the average person is cool with masked men zip-tying abuela and throwing her into an unmarked van while tasing her grandson for trying to interfere. Obama deported more people than Trump has. But he did it the way Americans like: out of sight.

For a media genius, Trump doesn’t seem to get that optics matter. Building a gilded ballroom while the government is shut down and people are cut off from food stamps and aren’t receiving paychecks and flights are being canceled does not suggest that he cares about the struggles of the average American.

People are still poor (and getting poorer). AI is taking jobs. Grocery prices are high. Healthcare costs just increased astronomically. My groceries continue to go up in price. My electricity bill jumped 25 percent. Our healthcare premium went up a whopping 43 percent. All our insurances have increased in cost. Gas prices are down so that saves me about… $10 a month. In my podcasting business, I’ve also been giving work to talented freelance writers and designers who have been replaced with AI at big companies, just to help keep them afloat.

Recovering investment banker and best-selling author of You Will Own Nothing, Carol Roth, has been warning everyone about the K-shaped economy for years.

“A K-shaped economy describes an economy (or recovery or trend) where there is stark divergence in the experience or outcome of different groups – like the visual of the letter K,” Roth says. “Part of the country is experiencing an upward economic trajectory (you can think of that as the asset holders, with portfolios, 401(k)s, homes, etc.) that have been doing great (at least on nominal terms, meaning not inflation-adjusted). Others are experiencing a downward economic trajectory, dealing with a more expensive cost of living across [many] categories, as well as job losses or underemployment and wage stagnation.”

I think a big problem with our K-shaped economy is that those at the top have zero idea how bad it is for those sliding down. They assume that the people whining about the fact that the average age of a first-time home buyer is 40 must just be bad with money. And lots of boomers have no empathy. Yes, young people have some bad habits, but the game is very different for them.

Fielding questions from reporters and getting defensive about the economy, Trump says: “I don’t want to hear about affordability.” He doesn’t seem to understand that people can be pro-tax breaks and still think bananas are too expensive. (And thanks to his tariffs, banana prices happen to be up about 8 percent since April.)

Americans will put up with a lot of crap from their leaders, but this administration should have learned from Joe Biden that we won’t put up with being gaslit about rising prices. We know. We are the ones buying things. We are the ones choosing to get this instead of that. We are the ones who go to bed with crippling financial anxiety, wondering how we are going to pay for childcare and utilities and insurance and kids’ activities and student loans. We are the ones worrying about what the future will look like for our children if it’s already this unsustainable for us. I said it before when Trump won and I’ll repeat it: if Americans don’t feel real material relief, the right-wing vibe shift will be a one-hit wonder.

This article was originally published in The Spectator’s November 24, 2025 World edition.