Trump can hit Putin where it hurts

Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate a quick end to the war in Ukraine have run into trouble. As US negotiators meet with Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to explore possibilities for a comprehensive ceasefire, the Russian side is clearly going through the motions.

Vladimir Putin’s call last week with Trump showed that he sees no need to stop fighting when he is winning. He believes that he can weaken Ukraine’s will to fight and encourage Trump to help him impose on Kyiv a Russian-designed peace settlement. So far, he has not sensed any determination on the part of the Trump administration to persuade him otherwise.

Russia’s main vulnerability that Trump could threaten to exploit is Russia’s ability to sell oil

One of Putin’s key requirements for a peace deal is a commitment that Ukraine will not join foreign military alliances or host foreign military bases. Even before talks began, Trump delivered a major concession to Moscow by ruling out the possibility of NATO membership for Ukraine.

Russia is now demanding a prohibition in Ukraine receiving military aid and intelligence support to end the war. Trump switched off both to force Ukraine to accept the idea of an unconditional 30-day ceasefire and then reinstated them once Kyiv fell into line.

From Putin’s perspective, if Trump has done it once, he can do it again – particularly since he takes Moscow’s word at face value and can probably be easily persuaded that any breakdown of a ceasefire will be the fault of Ukraine backed by its European allies. Putin can also be confident that there will be no further US weapons deliveries to Ukraine once the current package arranged by the Biden administration runs out in the summer. After all, Trump’s goal is to disengage the US from Ukraine as soon as possible. Putin also knows that Europe cannot fill the gap.

In addition, there is little doubt that Russia will also want to limit the size of the Ukrainian army. During the failed negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv that began shortly after the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Russian side proposed warehousing all Ukraine’s heavy artillery under Russian guard. Moscow’s goal will be to prevent Ukraine from acquiring the capability to recover the 20 percent of its territory that Russia has occupied starting in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

Beyond that, Ukrainians fear with justification that Russia will interfere in its elections and try to bring to power “pragmatic” political forces prepared to accommodate Russian interests. Georgia provides an example of how the pro-western course of a neighboring country can be reversed in line with Moscow’s preferences.

The interviews at the weekend by Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has met twice with Putin, suggest that the White House has no reason to question Putin’s logic on Ukraine and the substance of the peace deal that the Kremlin is pushing. Witkoff is a real estate lawyer, not a diplomat, and perfectly qualified from Moscow’s perspective for the role of “useful idiot.” His naivety is breathtaking.

He went on the record parroting Russian narratives about Ukraine being an artificial state. He also treated as valid the sham referendums held on the partially occupied territories of four of Ukraine’s regions that led to the incorporation of all four regions into the Russian Federation.

Witkoff also revealed how Putin has been softening up Trump by commissioning a portrait of him and allegedly praying for him after he survived assassination. He saw both gestures as positive and the result of the Trump administration’s willingness to speak to Moscow – unlike its predecessor.

Ukraine’s best hope is Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Both know Russia better and are not inclined to trust Putin’s word. Rubio noted a month ago that the administration needed to clarify whether Moscow wanted to end the war or continue fighting. Whether the two will gain influence over the US-orchestrated peace process will depend on whether Putin’s intransigence begins to frustrate Trump.

The clear signal from last week’s call between Trump and Putin was that the Russians are interested in peace, but only on their terms. Trump has heard from both Zelensky and several European leaders that the Russian peace formula requires Ukraine’s capitulation and is unacceptable both to Ukraine and its European allies. If he wants to avoid the humiliation of outplaying him and forcing him to surrender Ukraine, Trump must go against his instinct and confront the Russian leader.

Trump has cards to play. The war is not going as well as Putin would like to suggest, and he faces real pressures if it continues. To advance deeper into Ukraine, Putin will have to convert significant resources from the civilian sector to military use to increase production of military equipment.

Russian stocks of some types of armor are currently projected to run out after the summer, and the army will require more soldiers if it needs to control larger urban areas as it advances. This could require additional mobilization that the Kremlin wants to avoid. The last partial mobilization in 2022 led to close to one million people fleeing abroad, including some of the country’s “best and brightest.”

Western sanctions are continuing to inflict pain on the economy even if Russian business has found many work-arounds. The Kremlin is keen to see them lifted because they are inflicting serious long-term damage by widening the technology gap with the advanced economies.

Russia’s main vulnerability that Trump could threaten to exploit is Russia’s ability to sell oil. Displacing Russian oil from the global market by encouraging Saudi Arabia to pump more oil and squeezing further Russia’s ability to deliver oil by tanker to China and India could have a dramatic effect on Putin’s ability to continue funding the war.

Russian society has yet to feel the full impact of the conflict and the Kremlin will do all it can to prevent that happening. It is also widely believed that there are divisions within the Russian elite over Putin’s decision to go to war, including within the ruling circle.

If Trump wants to preserve his view of himself as the powerful international dealmaker, he urgently needs to change the dynamic in his relations with Putin. Some may conclude that it is already too late, and that Trump is in any case too much in thrall to the Russian leader.

The one place where that assumption will be doubted is the Kremlin. Putin and his closest associates believe too greatly in the existence of the US deep state. They fear Trump even when he bears gifts.