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The pipelines would be sealed off. The supertankers would be left in the ports, and the wells would have to be capped. When Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, it was confidently assumed that sanctions on Moscow’s oil and gas industry would be so punishing for its fragile economy that it would quickly force Vladimir Putin to plead for a settlement. Unfortunately, it has not worked out like that. Instead, the sanctions against Russia have been widely flouted. In response, President Trump has demanded that NATO makes them stick. But would sanctions really work and cripple Putin’s war machine?
President Trump was in typically robust form. Over the weekend, he demanded that the rest of NATO enforce the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia. Quoting from a letter sent to all members of the alliance, he wrote on social media:
I am ready to do major sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. As you know, NATO’S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking!
If the whole of the alliance stepped up to the plate, he continued, the United States would impose far tougher sanctions on Russia and force a peace between the two countries.
Despite the demonic language, Trump, as so often, has a point. There is plenty of evidence that the sanctions have been quietly ignored. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Turkey is the third largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels after China and India, followed by two EU members, Hungary and Slovakia. The EU itself is only aiming for 2028 for ending all contracts with Russia. And those, of course, are just the official figures.
There is a booming trade in black market oil, with tankers routed through third countries to disguise its origins. The strategy Ukraine’s allies are imposing is clearly not working. Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy has been booming, with 4 percent growth last year; while some of that may well be artificial, it has hardly brought the country to its knees, let alone stopped the war in Ukraine.
Of course, it is easy for the US to be tough on sanctions. It is self-sufficient in oil and gas – although Europe could easily be self-sufficient as well if it legalized fracking – and doesn’t need to import anything from Russia. Even so, it is hard to see the point of NATO if its members cannot stick together on this issue.
Donald Trump has a point. It is not fair to expect the US to take all the pain of sanctions if other members can’t be bothered. And neither is there much point in ramping up sanctions if the ones that were imposed three years ago can’t be made to work. He is almost certainly wrong to believe that they will force Putin to capitulate or even persuade him to start serious negotiations. But NATO should at least try – because right now, the sanctions in place against Russia are a joke.
