Poll: college-educated women end friendships over politics

New polling data shows what you may already suspect: your experience of losing friends since the 2024 election of Donald Trump is absolutely real – if very divided depending on your political tribe.

When national pollster Cygnal offered me the opportunity to suggest a question or two for their latest national survey, it was a chance to put to the test the experience of many Americans I know: in the past six months, they’ve lost at least one friend over the result of the 2024 election. The direction of lost friends seemed very politically consistent in my experience, but anecdotes aren’t data, and knowing more people on the right than the left, it’s possible this personal experience was skewed.

It turns out that it isn’t. According to Cygnal’s latest national survey of 1,500 likely voters (conducted May 6-8, with a 3 percent MOE), more than half of voters (53 percent) say “it’s at least somewhat common that their friends and neighbors have ended a friendship because of Donald Trump and the 2024 election” while “39 percent say not that common or not at all common.”

The ideological breakdown isn’t close. Democrats and voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 are far more likely to say friends and neighbors have ended a friendship over the election, with self-identified liberals saying they have a hard time co-existing and playing nice with someone who voted differently than they did by 30 points, a 2:1 margin (61 percent common compared to 31 percent not common). On the other side, conservatives are much more even-keeled – 49 percent say lost friendships over 2024 are common, but 45 percent saying it’s not common.

If you wanted to drill down to the biggest dividing factor here, it’s the portion of the coalition made up of college-educated women – a cohort that now dominates the politics of the Democratic coalition. In their circles, they say differences of political opinion have led to broken friendships with friends and neighbors at a more than 40-point rate – 67 percent to 24 percent.

One factor here could be an underlying belief that your friends and neighbors are just flat-out racists over their political opinions. Of Kamala Harris voters, Cygnal’s poll found that 62 percent say race relations have gotten worse in the past five years (since the summer of George Floyd), while 55 percent of Trump voters say race relations have improved or stayed the same. And again, the same cohort shows up to double-down on that belief: fully 75 percent of white female Democrats with a college-degree say race relations have gotten worse since 2020 – compared to just 41 percent of black men.

It’s the allyship that matters most, you see – not friendship.