Netanyahu’s talk of victory is premature

In amongst a swirl of pronouncements from Tel Aviv and Washington and Tehran, and against the dramatic backdrop of an Iranian presenter’s rather tired fire and fury being interrupted by the sound of smashing bombs, Netanyahu spoke of Israel being close to “victory.” Yet despite Khamenei being hidden in a bunker, experiencing regular panic attacks and now shielded from the worst news of his battered nation, any talk of “victory” here feels hollow and premature. For as this war thunders into its fifth day, Iranians across the country seek only to flee Israeli bombs, and talk of human rights, revolutions and the evils of the Islamic Republic have been cast aside as luxuries when faced with imminent destruction. It’s about survival now. And for the Ayatollahs and the IRGC, this is now about resistance, seemingly at any cost. Amid talk of “regime change”, we should remember that there is another possibility; Khamenei making way for a younger leader equally keen on resistance, but perhaps willing to talk their way to a pause in fighting, a chance to regroup, rearm and head on to a bomb.

Israeli diplomatic pressure on the White House will, therefore, be offering Trump a tantalizing glimpse of how close they are to this elusive victory, seeking to get their hands on those B52 bombers that can reduce Iran’s nuclear program to dust and dismantle the regime for good. Despite Israel’s relentless, and logical, targeting of Iran’s missile launchers, and its dismantling of the Islamic Republic’s leadership, Iran retains an arsenal of short-range air defense missiles. And for all the damage Israel has inflicted on the Iranian nuclear infrastructure, it is unlikely that the damage to its nuclear program (thought to be a few weeks from achieving weapons grade uranium and a few years from achieving a warhead) has been significant enough to change those timelines, or, more importantly, to change their minds. Ultimately, the Islamic Republic now knows, more than ever, that it “needs” a bomb. And it needs to survive.

And here’s where Trump comes in; to finish the job off once and for all. Or so the theory goes. Last night the President told everyone “to evacuate Tehran immediately”, suggesting imminent US air strikes. And for all that we are told that it could be in Iran’s interest for the war to expand into the region, playing to Iran’s fabled (if crumpled) asymmetrical strengths, the very last thing Tehran needs is American warplanes joining in the fight.

But how far will the US involve itself? A continuing exchange of fire in which both sides dig their heels in, and the world mostly watches on as ordinary citizens pay the ultimate price, still seems the most likely scenario. In this age of forever wars, Trump faces an unenviable choice, as do the Iranian and Israeli people. There really are no victors here.