Mark Carney is Canada’s new prime minister

It is difficult to overstate how much Trump has changed the dynamics of Canadian politics. When Justin Trudeau resigned on January 6, his Liberal party was on just 16 per cent in the polls — 25 points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Within six weeks, that had narrowed substantially, with Nanos suggesting there was just two points between the two parties. The top issue of national concern? Donald Trump and US relations.

Visiting Ottawa in January, I was struck by the remark which one Member of Parliament made to me. “We don’t see America and tariffs as foreign affairs — we see them as actually an extension of our domestic economic policies.” The economies of Canada and America are deeply integrated; Trump’s threats to put 25 per cent tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of goods would devastate provinces like Alberta, which sends oil and gas south for refining. Nearly 80 per cent of Canadian exports go south to the United States.

Trump’s tariff agenda has been accompanied by constant jibes around annexation. The White House Press Secretary has called Canada “Our soon to be 51st state”; the Homeland Security Secretary repeatedly made the remark while jumping back and forth across the border. Facing an upsurge in Canadian patriotism, the Liberals have played the national card for all it is worth.

Justin Trudeau — the man who once claimed his country was the world’s first “post-national” state — has been at the forefront, issuing retaliatory threats and urging a “team Canada” response. Mark Carney said similar in his remarks last night: “My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect… Canada will never, ever be part of America.”

The Conservatives meanwhile have been virtually tearing their hair out. Poilievre’s party has been painted as MAGA-sympathizers, with Carney doubling down on his jibes last night. “Pierre Poilievre will leave us divided and ready to be conquered because a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him,” he said. Polls suggest voters think Carney is more than twice as likely to stand up to Trump than Poilievre.

With an election expected imminently, economics and America are the two issues likely to dominate. For all the Tory attacks on Carney as an outdated plutocrat, he has thus far been able to present himself as a fresh new face behind which the country can unite. With the Liberals seeking a fourth consecutive term, they now have a competitive and credible candidate. It is that ability to come back from the brink which shows why they have long been-regarded as Canada’s natural party of government.