Kim Jong-un will not give up

It was only a matter of time before North Korea lit things up again. As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on a five-day sojourn to Seoul, the hermit kingdom welcomed the US official in the way it knows best — by testing another ballistic missile. 

North Korean state media proudly announced that Monday’s missile launch was of its latest hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile system. For Kim Jong-un, now entering his fourteenth year in power, the test of the “strategic weapon” — which flew 683 miles with an altitude of close to sixty miles — would “contain any rivals in the Pacific” and demonstrate to its “enemies” that it would be “fully ready to use any means to defend our legitimate interests.”

This is hardly the first time that the country has tested hypersonic missiles, which, due to their ability to travel hypersonically — at least five times above the speed of sound — take less time to reach their respective target. When North Korea claimed to have carried out its first hypersonic missile test in September 2021, it deemed the missile to be of “great strategic significance.” This week, Kim uttered similar words, deeming this most recent test to be one that the “world cannot ignore.”

The recent barrage of missile tests has formed part of Kim Jong-un’s five-year defense plan, launched in January 2021. Since then, the Supreme Leader has been steadily progressing through his shopping list of conventional and unconventional weapons. His list included a wealth of weaponry, including military reconnaissance satellites, multi-warhead rockets, solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles, and hypersonic glide vehicles. Much to Tokyo’s continued ire, North Korean missiles typically plunge into waters near Japan’s exclusive economic zone, and yesterday’s launch was no exception. What Pyongyang’s frequent missile tests do show, however, is that its missiles are flying higher, further, and staying airborne for longer. 

If we take the North Koreans at their word, then Kim Jong-un has completed his 2021 shopping list. But it is not as if the Kingdom will stop there. Pyongyang is continuing to bolster the scope and sophistication of what it calls the “treasured sword” of its nuclear and missile capabilities. For the Kim regime, launching new and improved missiles carries propagandistic value at home, and sends signals to the country’s adversaries. It also has a far more elementary purpose, namely to prove to North Korean officials that their systems actually work. Ultimately, Kim Jong-un remains steadfast in his goal for North Korea to gain international recognition as a nuclear-armed state, on par with India, Russia and China. 

Whilst starting a new year with a missile test is a tried-and-tested strategy from North Korea’s playbook, 2025 is no ordinary year. Russia’s security cooperation with North Korea in Ukraine shows few signs of abating. With Pyongyang now supplying Moscow with manpower, the number of North Korean soldiers being killed only looks to rise. In return, as Blinken made clear earlier this week, Moscow is coming close to sharing advanced military technology with its Cold War client state.  

As Washington prepares for the second administration of Donald Trump — whose inauguration is less than two weeks away — the world is waiting to see if Trump and Kim Jong-un will rekindle their past bromance. Fake peace deals might be signed and luncheons might be had, but this time, Kim Jong-un will likely not want to return from any talks empty-handed. 

The world also cannot ignore the political tumult in the southern half of the Korean Peninsula, in the wake of the now-suspended President Yoon Suk-yeol’s invocation of martial law. For the first time in history, an arrest warrant has been issued to a sitting — albeit suspended — South Korean president. With Yoon ignoring multiple summonses, it is no surprise that North Korea has exploited the situation with its own hyperbolic rhetoric. In Pyongyang’s eyes, Yoon has plunged the country into “an abyss of political chaos.”

At the same time, attempts by Yoon’s leftist detractors to hasten his downfall and demonize South Korean conservatives as part of the “far-right” have been counterproductive. Their maneuvers are taking place at a time when support for the embattled president has, in fact, seen an uptick. South Koreans must remember that the grass is not always greener on the other side. Much like we are witnessing in Great Britain, a leftist leadership can also plunge a country into chaos — and quickly. 

In what is almost certainly his last trip to Seoul as US secretary of state, Blinken made clear how South Korea’s democracy “has been tested in recent weeks — just as American democracy has faced challenges throughout [its] history.”

But we can at least be sure of some things. North of the Demilitarized Zone, Kim Jong-un will neither be ignoring his enemies in the Pacific nor will he want to be ignored. And even if North Korea does come to the negotiating table for Trump, he will certainly not be promising denuclearization.