Kevin McCarthy is damaging the House speakership

If there was any question as to how tenuous would-be Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy’s grasp would be on the gavel, then what happened on New Year’s Day should remove all doubt.

On Sunday, the House Republican leadership team unveiled significant changes to the House rules in advance of the official swearing-in and start of the 118th Congress. Many of the changes are aimed at improving transparency and governance. But one rule change that could be far more significant was the restoration of the “motion to vacate the chair.”

Under the proposed rules package, five members of the majority conference can band together and force a vote of no confidence in the speaker. This concession from McCarthy to his conservative critics seriously weakens the power of the speaker and suggests that anti-McCarthy factions within the Republican Party have drawn blood.

Already, we know there are five Republicans willing to vote against McCarthy. A bloc of four House Freedom Caucus members have already promised to back Arizona Congressman Andy Biggs for speaker. Another group led by Freedom Caucus Chair Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania have aired their own demands for McCarthy, claiming that “despite some progress achieved, Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd.”

Other changes to the House rules suggest that McCarthy is trying to shore up support from potential rivals. A new subcommittee within the Judiciary Committee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government” will give incoming Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan of Ohio an even higher-profile platform to attack the Biden administration.

Representative Perry’s letter suggests that McCarthy’s concessions were offered in the hopes of avoiding a floor fight tomorrow. McCarthy’s allies seem reluctant to accept the destabilizing return of the motion to vacate. One anonymous McCarthy backer has already conditioned voting for these rules on securing McCarthy’s 218 votes for speaker.

Note too that McCarthy and the rest of Republican leadership have said nothing about freshman New York Representative George Santos.

House races in the Empire State were the only bright spot for the GOP in the 2022 midterms. Republicans flipped four seats there to win their House narrow majority, including New York’s third district. But that was before the winner of that election, George Santos, admitted he’d fabricated most of his personal history.

Santos’s litany of lies includes styling himself as a graduate of Baruch College, working at financial giants Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, creating a fraudulent charity for animal rescue, suggesting his mother died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and claiming Jewish heritage — complete with a Holocaust narrative. (Questions remain about how he financed his campaign and even his professed sexual orientation.) Disastrous interviews on the inconsistencies in his résumé have led many — not just Democrats — to call for his resignation.

No incoming speaker would want to deal with the political migraine Santos presents. A true leader would speak out against a documented serial liar sitting in the House of Representatives. A self-serving one would want to avoid the future scandals Santos will certainly attract. But then, Santos publicly committed to voting for McCarthy as speaker.

Santos certainly is a liar, but he is a duly elected liar. On Tuesday, he will take the oath of office to serve in the 118th Congress. Any possible action the House might take on Santos will come after the leadership election. Even then, removal will be politically untenable.

Should Democrats succeed in convincing roughly half of the Republican conference to vote to expel Santos, there remains the question of filling the seat. New York’s Public Officers Law leaves it to Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul to call for a special election in a seat that favors Democrats by three points. Either way, if Republicans remove their new colleague, they will more than likely see their majority dwindle to a paltry three seats.

The conspicuous silence coming from the top of Republican leadership suggests a distinct lack of political will to be rid of Santos or even to prevent him from sitting on a committee. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene took advantage of McCarthy’s silence and took to Twitter to defend Santos. This only complicated McCarthy’s situation further, as she too has publicly backed McCarthy for speaker.

Even if McCarthy overcomes the odds and wins 218 votes tomorrow, how long can he keep his conference together? He is so weakened going into Tuesday’s leadership elections that he already agreed to let a mere five members vote to remove him. Under McCarthy, the historically powerful speakership is set to be reduced to a mere paper tiger. Any expectations Americans might have had for the 118th Congress will thus need to be reevaluated — and lowered.