Can J.D. Vance have a role in future Ukraine peace talks?

Practically every aspect of that Oval Office meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky was surreal. The blow-up at the end was certainly the most shocking, but watching the American president repeatedly bite his tongue — until he didn’t — was also very strange. 

Holding back opinion is not normal behavior for the president. Yet we watched Trump speak very cautiously throughout the meeting, refusing to take sides, but more importantly, resisting the urge to push back when Zelensky insisted there would be no compromise to end the war or highlighted that the rare-earth deal did not go far enough to ensure Ukraine’s safety. 

Trump’s deliberate attempt to toe the coolest, (for better or for worse) neutral policy line was most clear when he hinted that he might like to express a more colorful opinion. But that would not allow the United States to play intermediate. “I’m in the middle, I want to solve this thing,” he told the press. “I’m for both. I want to get it solved. It’s wonderful to speak badly about somebody else, but I want to get it solved.”

That repeated line nearly got the two presidents out of the media spotlight and into the private stages of negotiation. Then J.D. Vance chimed in. 

“The path to peace and the path to prosperity is, maybe, to engage in diplomacy,” said Vance, when Trump brought him in to speak. The interjection seemingly reflected the general mood of the press conference so far. But it was too much for Zelensky, who was clearly not happy or comfortable throughout the entire conference, but particularly angered by the vice president’s interjection. 

While Trump has long argued he wants the war to end — what he simplifies as “peace” — Vance has spoken far more brashly about the fate of Ukraine, making clear in the past that he would withdraw American resources and support (Trump, in contrast, said in the conference Friday that the US would continue to supply Ukraine with arms). “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another” was Vance’s commentary the eve of Russia’s invasion back in 2022. 

These are vastly different positions that Trump and Vance have held on the war over the past three years — a difference Zelensky will be more aware of than anyone else. 

Of course, Trump knows who he made his vice president, and his previous opinions on the war. Many are speculating now that Trump and Vance wanted to humiliate and fight with Zelensky in public. Perhaps Vance was bait — bait Zelensky took, as he started asking the vice president questions about what he really knew about the history of invasion and current situation in Ukraine.

But it would be an odd tactic — not least because Trump had just spent the whole conference fighting his basic instincts. That’s to say, he didn’t riff. He stuck to a line, and it seemed to hold until Zelensky and Vance tried to best one another. That’s when Trump became extremely angry — particularly at the suggestion that America had not done its part to support Ukraine’s war efforts historically. 

It doesn’t really matter if the president had a point or not. If his goal is “peace,” outcomes like this are a problem. He says he wants the war done. Indeed he asked American voters to return him to the White House so he could bring an end to the war swiftly. If he wants to be that leader, he cannot lose his temper. 

Perhaps more importantly, he cannot lose control of the negotiations. And what became clear on Friday is that Zelensky appears able to handle Trump as a negotiator. He is not open to negotiating with his more ideological deputy.

Trump knows he pulls the purse strings, as he made clear to Zelensky in front of the press. But the suspension of talks, and the rare-earth deal signing, is not good for Trump’s broader agenda. Trump can try to remove the US’s backing and involvement, but Joe Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan is very recent history — and no doubt on the 47th president’s mind. Whatever unspeakable scenes resulted in Trump’s decision to withdraw support would always be tied to his legacy.

So the war rumbles on — a very bad outcome for both Trump and Zelensky. So if the Ukrainian leader does return to talk “peace” as Trump has insisted, can he risk Vance sitting by his side again?