J.D. Vance makes nice with Munich

It was an emollient J.D. Vance who showed up at the Munich Leaders Meeting in Washington, DC. Gone was the Vance who dissed the Europeans in Munich on February 15 by complaining that they were practicing censorship of political views and who met with a representative of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party. Gone was the Cerberus who barked at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the Oval Office on February 24 that he had exhibited a dismaying lack of gratitude toward America for its assistance to his beleaguered nation. Gone was the Ohio senator who declared in July 2024 that he didn’t give a fig about Ukraine’s fate and was more interested in pursuing an Asia First policy. In his stead was a vice president who took a swipe at Russia and underscored America’s longstanding ties with Europe.

Was this merely piffle designed to placate an apprehensive audience of Europhiles and national security dweebs about the Trump administration’s stance toward Russia and Ukraine? Or a sign that Trump – and by extension, Vance – are truly taking a harder line on Russia?

Vance’s remarks suggest that Trump, who concluded a minerals deal with Zelensky, may be be starting to shift, however slightly, his view of the Ukrainian President as the principal malefactor in the conflict with Russia. Hence Vance’s comment about the Kremlin: “We think they’re asking too much.” They are indeed. Putin’s ambitions, as Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to America, posited, extend beyond Ukraine to menace Europe more generally.

Still, Vance gave an optimistic spin to potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. “I’m not yet a pessimist on this,” he said. He indicated that a peace agreement could serve as the basis for wider arms-control agreements with both Russia and China. Once upon a time such a statement would have gladdened the hearts of liberal Democrats. Today, in the topsy-turvy political environment created by Trump, arms control appears to have become the province of MAGA world, while the liberal internationalists have become the hardliners.

Perhaps what came as the biggest surprise to his audience were Vance’s asseverations that America and Europe are on the same team. “I’d encourage us all to get back on the same track back together,” he said. The tone was not calculated to reassure Moscow. The only predictable thing about the Trump administration remains its unpredictability.