Will Iran respond to Nasrallah’s assassination?

The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah transcends the immediate confrontation between Israel and its Islamist enemies. Nasrallah was both a leader and a symbol of Iran’s bid for hegemony in the Arab world. His fighters advanced Iran’s cause in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond the region — into Europe, Africa and Latin America.

Israeli pundits discussed last night the possibility of deterioration into all-out war

As is known but rarely stated by western diplomats and officials, Nasrallah was the most powerful man in Lebanon and its de facto ruler. He led a military force and a political structure that dwarfed the ailing official state and managed a successful insurgency against Israel from 1992 to 2000 and an inconclusive war in 2006. After the defeat of the pro-western Lebanese nationalists in 2008, the official government and its cabinets were incapable of challenging Hezbollah. 

In his public statements, Nasrallah exemplified the conflation of opposition to Israel and theological hostility to Jews, which characterizes the rhetoric of Tehran’s proxies in the region. Speaking in Beirut in 2002, he said: “Among the signs and signals which guide us, in the Islamic prophecies is that this State of Israel will be established, and that the Jews will gather from all parts of the world into occupied Palestine, not in order to bring about the anti-Christ and the end of the world, but rather that Allah the Glorified and Most High wants to save you from having to go to the ends of the world, for they have gathered in one place — they have gathered in one place — and there the final and decisive battle will take place.” And elsewhere, in a speech marking the Shia festival of Ashura: “If we searched the entire world for a person more cowardly, despicable, weak and feeble in psyche, mind, ideology and religion, we would not find anyone like the Jew. Notice, I do not say the Israeli.”

What is the likely impact of Nasrallah’s exit? First, we should remember the importance of individuals in political and military leadership. Nasrallah, like Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani, was one of the architects of the political and military project that has brought Iran its successes over the last two decades, a project that has yet to recover from Soleimani’s assassination by the Americans in January 2020. 

Nasrallah’s killing completes a weeks-long process of decapitating Hezbollah. Chief of staff Fuad Shukr, Radwan Force head Ibrahim Aqil, missile force commander Ibrahim Qubaisi, and numerous less senior operatives have fallen victim to Israeli targeted strikes in recent weeks. Last night’s attack wiped out a headquarters beneath an apartment building in Hezbollah’s heartland in south Beirut, the culmination of a campaign that has eliminated over 500 Hezbollah fighters.

Of course, assassinations bring no guarantees. Nasrallah, after all, rose to leadership following the killing of his less able predecessor. The blows inflicted on Hezbollah do not mean it has lost its core capacities. Hezbollah continues its blind firing on Israel’s north, which means that Israel’s 80,000 internal refugees still cannot return home. 

Israeli pundits discussed last night the possibility of deterioration into all-out war, with Iran itself potentially entering the fray. Nothing should be ruled out, and the yet-to-be-revealed identities of the Iranian officers killed alongside Nasrallah in the Beirut bunker are significant. Remember, Iran’s attack on Israel on April 14 came in response to the killing of IRGC General Mohammed Reza Zahedi in Damascus. But it’s equally likely that Hezbollah will seek revenge independently. Mussawi’s killing in 1992 was avenged by an attack on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, followed by the destruction of a Jewish community center in the same city in 1994. 

The main effect of Hassan Nasrallah’s killing is a moral one. Last night, as the first reports of Nasrallah’s death began to emerge, I thought of two comrades from my Israeli army days who died fighting Hezbollah. I hope their families felt a kind of closure last night, whatever may follow. From conversations in the last twelve hours with Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian friends, I can attest that many others across the region — including in places formally controlled by Iran-aligned forces — feel the same. 

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.