How likely is regime change in Iran now? 

The clue is in the name of Israel’s operation. “Operation Rising Lion” is a direct reference to the Pahlavi flag which shows a lion standing proud against the backdrop of a glowing orb, the sun. In Persian this is called the “Shir-e Khorshid.” For many years now, Netanyahu has sought to speak directly to Iranians, attempting to transcend the Islamic Republic, and to present himself as the savior of the Iranian people. These ongoing strikes are simply a continuation of this policy, and Israel’s determination to avoid civilian casualties (something we’ve not seen in Gaza) feeds into its desire for an anti-regime uprising caused by elite splits and popular rage.

For decades now, Israel has supported anti-regime groups in Iran, such as the frankly cultish Mujahedeen-e Khalq, a group so fueled by hatred of the regime that they threw in their lot with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War, a piece of opportunism for which the Iranian people, on all sides of the divide, have never forgiven them. As bombs rain down on Iranian cities and Supreme Leader Khamenei hides in a bunker somewhere in Lavizan with his family, the Israeli hope is for ordinary Iranians to rise up against a regime in disarray and free the Iranian people once and for all. Yet the longer this mythical uprising doesn’t take place, the more chance there is of national sentiment swinging in behind the regime, behind the IRGC, behind those who are protecting Iranian cities. Or at least trying to. Saddam Hussein, when he began a war with a freshly minted revolutionary Islamic Republic, gambling on a swift victory against a troubled nation, made the same miscalculation in 1980, dragging both countries into a horrendous conflict that ultimately ended in a ruinous stalemate.

Since the strikes began, we have seen videos of scattered nighttime cries of “Death to Khamenei, Death to IRGC” ringing out across Tehran, and videos sent to news outlets with commentary congratulating the Israelis. But we’ve also seen strident pro-regime protests, and the longer this conflict goes on, the more Israel will be seen less as liberator and more as oppressor. 

Persian nationalism is a quixotic phenomenon, easily capable of siding with the Ayatollah against Israel. Qassem Soleimani, a stalwart revolutionary hero killed by the US in a 2019 airstrike, was lauded by Iranians across the political spectrum for his strategic genius and his defence of Iran’s borders and domestic security. He took the fight to US as they started wars that surrounded Iran after 9/11; he took the fight to ISIS, eventually defeating it; he defended the Iranian nation. The narratives ignored his role in the brutal suppression of dissent in Iran.

Israel should remember that for all the nostalgia towards Pahlavi rule, and for all the hatred of the Islamic Republic across Iranian society, Iranian nationalism is a force that transcends flags and political eras, going back even further than Islam. And it is a force that could drag this conflict out, denying Netanyahu the ultimate victory he craves; the fall of the Ayatollahs.