The fallout from AfD’s ‘historic victory’ in Germany

Alternative für Deutschland’s success in east German state elections marks a major blow to the government in Berlin. The AfD is set to win almost a third of the vote in Thuringia — putting it nine points ahead of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU). The AfD’s top candidate in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, hailed a “historic victory.” Despite the best efforts of the centrist parties, the AfD is not going away.

Scholz’s remarks ignore a simple reality: that the AfD has transcended its status as a mere party of protest

This result, if confirmed once all votes are counted, would mark the first victory for a far-right party in a state parliament since World War Two. The anti-immigration Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) also enjoyed success in Saxony.

In the lead-up to the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, polls indicated that the two parties were on course to do well. In fact, the AfD — which also won 30 percent of the vote in Saxony — managed to become the strongest party in Thuringia. The other parties are still determined to lock the AfD out, meaning that the forming of a new state government will be significantly difficult. But while the party has little hope of actually gaining power in Thuringia, Sunday’s elections are a clear sign that the AfD is here to stay.

Despite the party’s Saxony and Thuringia chapters being classed as right-wing extremist by security authorities, voters were not deterred from backing the party. In the wake of the results, German chancellor Olaf Scholz urged mainstream parties to exclude “right-wing extremists” from power. “Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is damaging Germany,” Scholz said. But even if the mainstream parties do succeed in preventing the AfD gaining a foothold in state parliaments, Scholz’s comments fail to answer the question of why so many turned out to support the AfD.

It is clear that the AfD’s anti-immigration stance has made the party popular with many voters; some have also backed the party to voice their protest against the political class in Berlin. There is a feeling that, after German unification, the federal governments in Bonn and later Berlin have not catered for the needs of people particularly in the rural areas in Saxony, Thuringia or Brandenburg. The rift has only been growing in the past decade or so, with rising immigration, pandemic-related restrictions, increased military funding and climate protection regulations making it easier for anti-government forces to be heard among east Germans.

Scholz’s remarks ignore a simple reality: that the AfD has transcended its status as a mere party of protest.

Division on the left has also helped the AfD. The party was handed a boost by Sahra Wagenknecht’s decision to quit the far-left party Die Linke and set up her own alliance. Wagenknecht’s newly-formed outfit has adopted anti-immigration policies and promoted a rather conservative worldview. At the same time, Wagenknecht still represents socialist positions in socio-economic matters. Many left-wing Germans didn’t know who to turn to at the ballot box — and the AfD capitalized on this split.

So, what happens now? The simultaneous success of both the AfD and the BSW could potentially drive Germany’s federal government in Berlin towards an even stricter approach towards immigration. However, Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) has historically been weak in east Germany. As a result, some of the party’s voters reject the idea that it should react to the east German election results by hardening its approach on immigration.

But support for the AfD is not only confined to the country’s east. The AfD has enjoyed rising popularity in a few west German states. In 2023, the party won 14.6 percent of the votes in Bavaria and 18.4 percent in Hesse. The state election in Brandenburg, which will take place in three weeks, will likely see another win for the AfD, while recent polls predict the BSW to finish fourth behind the SPD and the CDU.

The CDU, in particular, might find itself at a crossroads in the coming weeks and months. Questions regarding a potential collaboration with the AfD have been answered ambiguously or not at all. Some political commentators tend to call the current status quo a “firewall,” which the CDU would tear down if it enters a coalition with the AfD at the state level. About a year ago, a political motion to lower the real estate transfer tax in the state of Thuringia ultimately passed in the state parliament against the will of the government, which has been led by left-wing politician Bodo Ramelow, thanks to the votes from lawmakers from the CDU, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the AfD. At the time, some accused the CDU of secretly collaborating with the right-wing party.

The mathematical truth now in the wake of the east German election results is that the stronger the AfD and potentially Wagenknecht’s new party become, the harder it will be for centrist parties to avoid collaborating with either of the two. Germany’s mainstream parties can no longer pretend the AfD is a political force that will simply disappear.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.