Donald Trump, Putin and the Concert of Arabia

For Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, it’s a case of “Today Ukraine, tomorrow the world.” In their much-hyped phone call this week, the Russian leader didn’t seem to give much away: a step toward a sort-of ceasefire, a prisoner swap, and a few other odds and ends. But Putin knows that Trump wants much more than just an agreement on the Donbas. Settling the most significant conflict in Europe since World War Two is merely a prelude to a much bigger deal in the Holy Land — a truly historic arrangement that could fulfill Trump’s desire to be seen as a legendary peacemaker.

That’s why Trump sent Steve Witkoff, his special envoy to the Middle East, to Moscow last week to pre-negotiate with Putin. It struck many as odd that while Witkoff, Putin and Trump were discussing how to end the war in Ukraine, renewed hostilities broke out between Israel and Hamas, and Trump ordered a new bombing campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

Yet it makes sense — because the Ukraine war is just one part of the new Great Game of the 21st century, now centered on the Middle East. On Sunday, Russia-Ukraine-US ceasefire talks will resume in Jeddah, and the host, Saudi Arabia, is emerging as a more important power broker than Britain or France — let alone Brussels. Keir Starmer wants credit for persuading Ukraine to accept Trump’s initial ceasefire proposal, but it was Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who truly won over Volodymyr Zelensky by offering Ukraine a multi-billion-dollar investment package.

Trump and Putin may have spent most of their 90-minute call wrangling over energy plants on the Dnipro River or naval maneuvers in the Black Sea, but the subject of Iran appears to have been just as important. Putin agreed to increase pressure on Tehran, Russia’s ally in the region, and to hinder its nuclear weapons program. “The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel,” said the White House readout from the call, which the Kremlin confirmed.

For more than a decade, Putin has been conducting a “maximum pressure” campaign against Ukraine, culminating in the war that may or may not be ending. Trump, Witkoff and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aim to take a similar approach with Iran — cutting it off from everyone except perhaps China. The plan is to bankrupt Tehran, empower Israel, and strengthen ties with the Arab states. Just hours after his call with Putin, Trump, in his words, “warmly welcomed” the United Arab Emirates’ national security advisor, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, to the White House for talks and dinner. The sheikh didn’t take off his sunglasses, but nobody seemed to mind.

It’s Trump’s “Concert of Arabia,” and the center of global diplomatic gravity has shifted eastward. The US, Russia, China and Turkey will compete for influence over Greater Israel, a weakened Iran, and a newly empowered Arab League, while petrodollars keep everything running. Meanwhile, India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, is also expected to play a key role in Trump’s new world order. Interestingly, while Trump spoke to Putin, his Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard – a Hindu – was in Delhi talking to Narendra Modi about strengthening US-India ties and achieving “peace through a strategy rooted in realism and pragmatism.”

Europe and Britain, meanwhile, are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron’s quixotic effort to form a military “coalition of the willing” – now supposedly entering an “operational phase” – is seen in Trump circles and the Kremlin as an attempt to prolong the war by other means. At best, it’s unhelpful; at worst, it’s apocalyptically reckless. The US doesn’t seem interested in providing the security “backstop” against Russian aggression that Starmer desperately wants. Trump supports increased European defense spending but has no interest in any moves that might disrupt his broader vision for world peace.

Macron and Starmer’s hope must be that by emphasizing how Putin “played” Trump – keeping him waiting on the phone and then not quite agreeing to US demands – the Commander-in-Chief’s pride will be stung into adopting a more hostile stance toward Russia and dramatically recommitting to NATO’s eastern deterrence. But Trump isn’t nearly as thin-skinned as his critics suggest. He may very well fall out with Putin in the coming days, just as he did with Zelensky – posting angry rants on Truth Social or delivering another “fire and fury” press conference. But that would mostly just add a dramatic twist to the reality TV show of his presidency. Blow-ups are great for ratings.

The bigger point is that Trump and the “Make America Great Again” movement don’t share Europe’s deep-seated fear and loathing of Putin. “I don’t like Russia,” said Charlie Kirk, the Turning Point chief executive and de facto voice of MAGA Youth, on Tuesday. “They’re not a free society. It’s run by a bunch of gangsters and thugs. [But] they do have some rich culture that is worthy of recognition and appreciation. Tolstoy is real. Dostoevsky? Real. Tchaikovsky? Real. War and Peace? Real. That’s real stuff: real beauty, real art.”

Kirk and other figures in Trump’s orbit are far more interested in confronting a different group of gangsters and thugs – namely, the Mexican cartels that have been flooding America with illegal drugs and migrants in recent years. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and others have warned the Mexican government to take action against these rogue actors or face US military intervention. The Trump administration would justify such an operation using language similar to how Russia described its “special military operation” in Ukraine in 2022. And the effect would be similar: a great power flexing its muscles and expanding its reach. Given Trump’s interest in acquiring Canada and Greenland, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to deny that his America is expansionist.

War in the Western Hemisphere and peace elsewhere? That’s real stuff: real beauty, real art.