How Trump could turn on the American oligarchy

The word “oligarch” returned to the media lexicon at Donald Trump’s inauguration this week when some of the world’s biggest technology entrepreneurs took their seats while US cabinet ministers were asked to sit dutifully behind them. Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg felt the need to demonstrate loyalty to Trump. The president did not insist on them kissing his ring but allotted them places as if they were school prefects listening to their headmaster on speech day. Zuckerberg could not disguise his facial discomfort. The others were better actors.

Earlier this century it was Russian big business that was famous for its so-called oligarchs. Under President Yeltsin some of them received posts in government while continuing in business. Mikhail Khodorkovsky for a while in 1992 was deputy minister of fuel and energy, and Boris Berezovsky was deputy secretary of Yeltsin’s security council in 1996-1997.

There has been no need for Trump to issue a Kremlin-style warning to American big business

It wasn’t an oligarchy as usually defined, but there was no denying that big businessmen had political clout. Without their help in campaign finance and media propaganda, the sickly Yeltsin would probably have lost the 1996 presidential election. Berezovsky talked as if Putin, who succeeded Yeltsin in 2000, was going to be pottery clay in his hands. This mightily irked Putin, who quickly summoned the twenty-one wealthiest entrepreneurs to a Kremlin round-table meeting where he barked that they could keep their wealth only if they made sure to stay out of high politics.

They were not accustomed to hearing such language from a mere politician and three of them — Berezovsky, Khodorkovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky — ignored the warning. Within a short while they were stripped of their Russian assets. Gusinski eventually fled to Israel and Spain, Berezovsky to the United Kingdom. Khodorkovsky, who fought on, was sentenced to years of Siberian imprisonment in 2005.

Few big businessmen in Russia since then have dared to challenge President Putin. They spread their interests to the rest of Europe. They bought up companies in the European Union. Roman Abramovich purchased Chelsea FC with his spare change and turned it into a trophy-winning team. Russian oligarchs sited their luxury yachts on the French Riviera. Some renovated palazzi in Umbria, and British foreign secretary Boris Johnson enjoyed a notorious weekend there at the Lebedev family’s invitation. Until the war in Ukraine it seemed that Russia’s big businessmen had European public figures on speed dial.

The commercial acumen of Russian big businessmen is exceptional. When in the 1990s western bankers and investors sometimes talked down to them as peasants, the Russians pointed to the sophistication they had learnt in the wild capitalism of the new Russia. They showed they were quite capable of adapting to international ways.

What about today’s American “oligarchs?” Whereas Putin doesn’t likes to share the public stage with his own Russian financial supporters, Trump on the electoral stump readily welcomed his friend Elon under the arc lamps. On occasion they performed a father-and-son double-act for the American voting public. Musk currently runs the Department of Government Efficiency.

Financial favors have flowed to Trump from the IT high elite. Bezos has reportedly advanced $40 million for the production of an airbrushed biopic of Mrs. Trump — an extravagant outlay by any standards, especially if Melania is not going to be asked to spill any beans on her husband. Musk among other donations gave prizes of $1 million to winners in a Pennsylvania lottery that was aimed at winning electoral support for Donald Trump. Mark Zuckerberg unexpectedly announced that he would stand down Meta’s fact-checking operations in line with Trump’s policies.

So there has been no need for Trump to issue a Kremlin-style warning to American big business. US oligarchs recognize the damage he can do at this moment to their interests. He is not an entirely ungrateful monarch. Elon Musk’s plea for H-1B visa to be kept available for skilled foreign workers has been granted. The princes of Silicon Valley are breathing a sigh of relief. The business model of twenty-first century American capitalism cannot operate without the infusion of highly-educated technologists from overseas.

For one notable Trump supporter, Steve Bannon, the relaxation of H-1B regulations is a betrayal of the Make America Great Again agenda. Bannon calls Musk a racist who should be shipped back to South Africa. Evidently the court of Donald J. Trump seethes with bitter rivalries. Most medieval monarchs would have welcomed the chance to play off one aristocratic faction against another — and Trump would not be human if he did not enjoy the spectacle of the squabbles.

But there is a lot more under contention than the H-1B visa question. The reach of American big tech is not confined to the data hubs of Silicon Valley and the Tesla gigafactory in Nevada. Links with China are integral to most large IT companies. Unlike Russian oligarchs, their US counterparts are truly global. Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw American capital and production from Chinese territory. As yet there has not been a squeak about this from the garrulous Musk. Fellow school prefect Zuckerberg has held his tongue while Bezos has focused on applauding the headmaster.

Huge business interests are in play. For the moment the oligarchs of Would-Be Great Again America are hoping to protect their assets by acts of sycophancy. But Bannon, who cannot be bothered to learn the fawning art, is right that the stakes are high and about to get higher.

The Shakespearean drama Donald Trump Part Two has only just begun. President Trump as its principal character has performed his ludic signature of Executive Orders. Bannon has described the choices that lie ahead. Tough decisions are going to have to be made very soon. The in-fighting will be bruising. We shall soon learn whether Trump wishes to stun his oligarchic courtiers with his ingratitude or find some new way to indulge them. American and global business is about to discover whether or not Trump is the transatlantic Putin of our day.