Democrats win New Jersey governorship with Trump scare tactics

The votes are in – and they’ve shattered any illusion that New Jersey is a swing state.

The Democratic Party will hold onto the New Jersey governorship, with governor-elect Mikie Sherrill beating Republican Jack Ciattarelli in his third attempt at the governor’s mansion.

While Sherrill was always the favorite, polls continued to narrow even in the final stretch of the race. This pushed both parties into increasingly aggressive, even desperate, tactics.

In mid-October, Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of “kill[ing] tens of thousands of people in New Jersey, including children” with opiates through a “misinformation” campaign pushed by a medical company he once owned.

When even The New York Times couldn’t dig up proof, the Democratic National Committee poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the state – in addition to the $3 million already committed.

And over the last weekend, bigwig Democrats including Barack Obama turned out to stump for Sherrill. “Let’s face it, our country and our politics are in a pretty dark place right now,” Obama said before rambling off a list of grievances against Donald Trump.

Democrats stuck to the same script: ignore Ciattarelli, and scare voters with Trump.

Yet Ciattarelli leaned into the Trump connection, incorrectly believing that MAGA political capital could pull him through.

After distancing himself in the 2021 campaign, Ciattarelli enthusiastically admitted that Trump has been “right about everything” (which Democrats turned into an attack ad) this time around. Trump endorsed him with equal enthusiasm in May: “Jack has gone ALL IN, and is now 100 percent (PLUS!)”

Republicans, meanwhile, pumped massive resources into the Garden State in the final stretch: five full-time staffers, 50 county captains and over 15,000 volunteers from attorneys to poll workers. They even rolled out a new app called VotePro, a voter mobilization tool to help more efficiently allocate last minute resources.

On the night before the election, Ciattarelli even held a heartwarming photo-op with his son, an Army Officer who returned from Kuwait.

But even election day bomb threats in North Jersey didn’t keep voters from the polls.

Off-year elections aren’t typically monitored in the national press, but a once deep-blue Jersey has drawn national attention as it turned increasingly purple in recent years. Trump only lost the state by six points in 2024, and Ciattarelli has gained ground with each campaign. With independents making up over one-third of the state’s voter pool, Republicans thought momentum was on their side.

Beyond the governorship, both parties clearly saw this election as an indicator for elections to come. The most salient question was whether New Jersey and its 14 electoral votes could potentially be up for grabs in 2028. But the broader strategic question remains: is Trump an asset to the party even when he’s not on the ballot, or is the specter of Trumpism just too scary for swing-voters?

Democrats will now surely double down, by tying everything they can to the Bad Orange Man. They may be right – but they also leave themselves vulnerable.

With his slicked-back hair and Jersey accent, Ciattarelli always leaned into being a goombah as much as he embraced Trump. Sherrill meanwhile – with her Navy service, Georgetown law degree, and pantsuits – was effectively designed in a lab to win elections. Perhaps Jersey voters simply appreciated her blandness over a goofy state caricature.

That bodes just as poorly for Republicans, as they race to see who the next big populist personality will be. A bland suit might just outperform a subpar personality, even in the age of populism.

But Democrats can equally hinder themselves if they continue to make everything about Trump even when he eases into political retirement. Trump derangement can easily turn into a personality itself – and it’s just as off-putting as anything the Republicans deliver.

In the end, the election will likely change very little in New Jersey. Sherrill will follow in the footsteps of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, another faceless politico.

This election may just not have the national implications Democrats hope for. But Democrats will no doubt delude themselves into thinking Sherrill’s victory harkens a future beyond Trumpism.