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When asked whether he will leave the Democratic Party and become an independent at a press conference on Monday, West Virginia senator Joe Manchin said, “I’m not a Washington Democrat, I don’t know what to tell you… I have no intention of doing anything right now. Whether I do something later, I can’t tell you what the future’s going to bring.”
Simultaneously, Manchin threw a punch at former Senate challenger and current congressman Alex Mooney, stating, “[Governor Jim] Justice is a much better candidate, and he would be doing it for the right reasons. I think Mooney is doing it strictly for his political ambition.”
While Manchin hasn’t yet confirmed a re-election bid, his comments leave the door open for his departure from the Democratic Party.
This isn’t the first time that Manchin has thrown out the possibility of a party switch. In 2021, he issued a threat: “me being a moderate centrist Democrat, if that causes you a problem, let me know, and I’d switch to be an independent.”
Manchin, whose moderation is often compared to that of Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who recently departed the Democratic Party herself, is something of a success story. He’s held onto his Senate seat in his home state of West Virginia, despite sturdy Republican supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. In West Virginia, Manchin is now the last surviving Democrat. The Mountain State has a long history of voting blue, but those days are now over.
Yet it also hasn’t turned its back on Democrats entirely. Governor Jim Justice was elected in 2016 as a Democrat, even as Trump won the state by a massive forty-two-point margin. However, in 2017, Justice flipped his registration status to Republican, and has since been embraced by Republican legislators, constituents, and political operatives.
Upon Trump’s election, Manchin was considered among one of the most endangered senators in the country. But one year later, he handily defeated Republican challenger and current West Virginia attorney general Patrick Morrisey.
Now, Manchin’s role as power broker has been called into question by the ascendance of Georgia’s Raphael Warnock, who will enter the Senate as the fifty-first vote that Democrats so badly need. Previously, Manchin was a swing vote, and used that power to kill a significant portion of the president’s agenda. Since Sinema won’t caucus with Republicans, that power is now gone, and with the voters of West Virginia firmly red, Manchin may find himself beholden to his constituents.
Over the years, Manchin has created his own brand, hailing from a small Appalachian town, working at local businesses, being a friendly face to constituents. In 2018, when asked if there was room for him in the Democratic Party following his support for Justice Brett Kavanaugh, he responded, “I’m just a good old West Virginia boy,” and walked away.
Reflections on West Virginia politics commonly draw upon the long tradition of blue-collar workers who have called the state home. For generations, coal dominated the economy and unions dominated the politics. Electing Democrats for nearly eighty years made sense. Yet today’s Democrats have shifted drastically, welcoming progressive policies that have threatened that same coal.
Manchin has clandestinely welcomed these policies, even as he’s sometimes sought to slow them. He was the deciding vote in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act, granting Green New Deal advocates much of what they bargained for. Yet when President Joe Biden called for a shutdown of coal plants across the nation, Manchin called the comments “outrageous” and “divorced from reality.” That double standard is becoming all too familiar.
Manchin often flounders on partisan issues. In his 2018 re-election bid, a viral photo circulated where he was seen holding both a “We don’t need Planned Parenthood” sign and an “I stand with Planned Parenthood” sign. This year, he’s called himself “pro-life” but announced his disappointment when Roe v. Wade was overturned.
With fewer eyes now set on Manchin, he may find himself finally picking sides, voting alongside his Republican colleagues to win back the hearts of Mountaineers.
Yet West Virginians and their politicians are calling out the wavering senator. As state treasurer Riley Moore put it, “the dominos have begun to move.” Moore, who recently announced his bid for Congressman Mooney’s seat, stated that there is a “laser focus” in the state to defeat Manchin, but it will take “resources and focus” to get it done.
This year, Manchin’s job approval rating has fallen by double digits among West Virginia voters. And while the senator may find comfort in retaining some political power in Washington, he appears to be losing it back home.
The stage is now set for West Virginians to expel their last Democrat from federal office. The red wave may not have materialized, but the Democratic Party has bigger problems than it might think.
