Can Russia and Ukraine reach a deal?

Warring parties often strike deals. Exchanges of prisoners, ceasefires to deliver aid, covert talks between intelligence services — and eventually, hopefully, peace. But since Vladimir Putin ordered thousands of troops across the Russian border into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there have been no peace negotiations and no sign of meaningful compromise from either Moscow or Kyiv.

But now, after nearly three years of horrendous casualties and destruction in Ukraine, preliminary talks are underway, according to the Financial Times, for a deal in which both sides would agree to stop or reduce attacks on energy installations. While it might seem a bizarre development, it’s now in Moscow’s interest as much as in Kyiv’s to end the continuous targeting of power plants. Ukraine has developed long-range attack drones which have struck targets deep inside Russia, including oil refineries.

Russia has targeted Ukraine’s power networks right from the beginning of the war, and in total has knocked out about nine gigawatts of the country’s energy infrastructure. This is half of the country’s capacity. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said it was “the equivalent… of the three Baltic states.”

With winter approaching, if that level of destruction continued, Ukraine’s population would inevitably face freezing months with daily power blackouts. Talks, sponsored and mediated by Qatar, took place in August but any progress towards some form of deal was scuppered when Ukrainian forces invaded the Kursk region in western Russia and seized a wide area of territory. Moscow pulled the plug.

However, the FT quoted a diplomatic source as saying there were “very early talks” about restarting discussions on ending strikes on energy facilities. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, was dismissive of the report, describing it as fake news. But Peskov has a habit of protesting too much. Something is going on.

In similar fashion, the so-called “grain deal” between Russia and Ukraine, now aborted, was constructed through the intervention of Turkey and the United Nations. It was a deal which seemed unlikely at the time, allowing Ukraine to continue exporting its grain stocks by cargo ship along a 357-mile corridor across the Black Sea to the Bosphorus Strait, with Moscow promising to permit safe passage.

The deal enabled Ukraine to return to near pre-war grain export levels of around 6.5 million tonnes a month, and operated from July 22, 2022 to July 17, 2023. Prior to the agreement, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its deliberate targeting of the country’s grain stores spiked global food prices and led to warnings of famine in Africa. Russia also temporarily halted its international grain exports, and the combination raised fears of a worldwide food crisis. Turkey, which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea, hosted the talks that resolved the crisis. Since Russia scrapped the deal, Ukraine has cleverly adapted its export routes to avoid Russian attacks. 

Whether the reported preliminary talks on an energy infrastructure deal, originally initiated by the Russian and Ukrainian intelligence services, come to fruition or not, the story raises the question of whether back-channel negotiations might lead to something even more substantial, such as ideas for bringing the war to an end. 

At present, that is unlikely. Putin is going to be in no mood to do any deals with Zelensky while Ukrainian troops remain an occupying force in Kursk. Indeed, thanks to Putin’s friend Kim Jong-un, several thousand North Korean troops are now training in Russia to join the Russian counter-offensive units attempting to liberate the region. 

In the meantime, the European Union is doing its best to provide Ukraine with some of the energy supplies it requires to survive the winter. The current plan is for the EU to restore 2.5 gigawatts of energy capacity — the equivalent of around 15 percent of the country’s needs.

However, about 80 percent of Ukraine’s thermal plants (coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear) have been destroyed and a third of its hydroelectric power is also out. So, even with the EU’s help, power supply is going to be restricted through the winter. 

Russia too has suffered from attacks on its energy infrastructure. Last month Ukrainian drones hit the Moscow oil refinery and the Konakovo power station in the Tver Oblast, which is one of the largest energy producers in central Russia. Kyiv has made it clear it intends to continue with such attacks with the aim of forcing Moscow to the negotiating table. 

The reported Qatar-sponsored talks could be the best hope for both Kyiv and Moscow to call a halt to this type of targeting. Then we will see if it leads to something more significant.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.